Friday, 31 July 2009

FLAWED FORECASTS

So the Met Office has at last decided to "revise" its long range forecast for this summer. They have decided it is not going to be a "barbecue summer" after all. A bit late perhaps, but to be fair they only said there was a 65% chance that their forecast would be correct. In fact they have incorrectly forecast similar weather for the past three years. This article in the Guardian explains that "the accuracy of a forecast is diminished by the inherent chaos of weather systems. As forecasters look further and further ahead, the chaotic behaviour of the atmosphere makes predictions less and less reliable". It then curiously goes on to say "they help businesses affected by the weather to plan ahead", which begs two questions; first how can they be of any use when they are so likely to be wrong, and secondly if the Met Office can't forecast six months ahead why do they believe they can make forecasts for the coming century, and why should anyone have confidence in them?

Continuing from the last point, why should governments add thousands of pounds to peoples cost of living to combat "dangerous climate change" based on such flawed forecasts?

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