tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1881436054697063063.post4914787902984436064..comments2024-03-19T04:45:33.328+00:00Comments on climate science: HOW ACCURATE ARE COMPUTER CLIMATE MODELS?Derek Tipphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07893712146272196994noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1881436054697063063.post-10966657155263147262010-10-10T12:27:16.543+01:002010-10-10T12:27:16.543+01:00Good to hear from you, Dan. The article which I li...Good to hear from you, Dan. The article which I linked to explains that we now have 50 years of data which can be compared to the predictions made at that time - the reult is that the predictions were wrong. Now you can argue, if you wish, that this is not long enough, but I would say that this is the best comparison that is available. If we need to wait a thousand years, or, perhaps a million, then we are simply having a pointless discussion, like discusing the meaning of life. <br /><br />In answer to your point about predicting the temperature in six monthe time - (a) this is pretty short term and so is probably 'weather' not climate, and (b) it depends on what you mean by the temperature - do you mean the temperature on that particular day? In which case you are more likely to get it wrong, or do you mean the average temperature in a particular place, in which case you may also be wrong, or do you mean the average global temperature - in which case you will probably be right as it has only varied by 0.7C in the last century according to the 'official' figures. Mind you measuring this in a meaningful way is a mine field of problems as we both know.Derek Tipphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07893712146272196994noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1881436054697063063.post-21041713533581376352010-10-09T23:54:50.117+01:002010-10-09T23:54:50.117+01:00Hi Derek, long time no speak. Apologies, PhD has t...Hi Derek, long time no speak. Apologies, PhD has taken over my life. First-off - I think saya might be spam.<br /><br />Second, just want to pick you up on "it is impossible to predict the climate, which is born out by the accuracy of short-term forecasts."<br /><br />So why is it possible to roughly predict temperatures in 6 month's time? Answer: the difference between climate forcing and weather. You're talking about two different things there - comparing weather and climate doesn't work.<br /><br />Your sentence is a bit like saying "its impossible to tell whether the tide is coming in or going out - as is born out by how variable each wave is." It's just the wrong level of comparison.<br /><br />Tata for now, hope to catch up more in future.Dolhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17110810881843699172noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1881436054697063063.post-75136956229794219872010-10-06T19:45:46.053+01:002010-10-06T19:45:46.053+01:00Thanks for the tip Saya - but I note that you only...Thanks for the tip Saya - but I note that you only have 4 followers on your site and I have 41.Derek Tipphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07893712146272196994noreply@blogger.com