NEW RESEARCH SHOWS HOW CLIMATE POLICIES ARE HURTING THE WORLD'S POOREST

This article explains how the scientists used eight global-agricultural models to analyse various scenarios between now and 2050. These models suggest, on average, that climate change could put an extra 24 million people at risk of hunger. But a global carbon tax would increase food prices and push 78 million more people into risk of hunger.

SNOW ARRIVES EARLY IN EUROPE AND THE USA

There was no shortage of reporting about the weeks of hot weather we had in Europe, which is now a distant memory. However I have not seen any reports of the early snow fall that has come to the Alps and also to high ground in the northern USA. Of course all this is only weather, though some people try to use it to push their preferred hypothesis about the climate.

MERKEL REJECTS STRICTER EMISSION CUTS PROPOSAL

This article explains the details. Of course no politician who has to get re-elected can ignore the economy, which is why the extreme green policies will never be carried out.

CONFESSIONS OF A CLIMATE SCEPTIC

Here is a good essay from a self-confessed climate sceptic in which he lays out his rational argument for not believing that man is causing most of the warming of the climate that has occurred in the last 50 years. 

WILL GERMANS CHOOSE THE ECONOMY OVER CLIMATE?

Angela Merkel's Economic Council Warns Against "Hasty Exit" From Coal
Westphälische Rundschau, 23 August 2018

BERLIN   The Christian Democrat's Economic Council has warned that a rash exit from coal power could increase electricity prices and that Germany still needed the power plants.



On the occasion of the meeting of the federal Government's so-called coal commission on Thursday the CDU's Economic Council warned against a "hasty exit" from the coal power generation.

"Coal has saved our country over this summer," said Secretary General of the Economic Council, Wolfgang Steiger. "Without our coal-fired power plants, we would not have managed so well to deal with the heat wave and the wind lull. We need this reliable source of energy for a long time."

Steiger emphasized that a "precipitous exit" from coal-fired power generation by national unilateralism would further increase electricity prices and endanger the security of supply for industry.

International competitiveness would be jeopardized without saving carbon dioxide in the European Union. "Often enough our energy supply has to be secured by Polish coal or French nuclear power plants."

The Economic Council emphasizes in an internal paper particularly the "enormous economic importance" of the coal: "A hasty and unilateral exit from coal on ideological grounds endanger established value creation chains and put hundreds of thousands of industrial jobs on the line," it says.

Translation GWPF

Full story (in German)

COAL TO REMAIN KING LONG INTO THE FUTURE

If fossil fuels really cause global warming, then this article would be a serious concern. Luckily the data, so far, has shown that any warming has been slow and faltering, so something must be preventing, or countering it.

Global Surge In Coal Use Scuttling Climate Change Efforts
Pratch Rujivanarom, The Nation, 20 August 2018

A worldwide rebound in coal trading is disrupting efforts to mitigate global warming and prevent climate change.



Energy analysts expect coal consumption in Southeast Asia and India to grow, as demand for the cheapest fuel is driving rapid economic expansion and offering big profits to investors in the electricity sector.

Environmentalists across the world are watching this rebound in the coal industry with great concern because it runs counter to international efforts to reduce reliance on fossil fuels by 2050 in order to stem the rise in global temperatures.

“Coal is the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel and phasing it out is a key step in achieving the emissions reductions needed to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius,” said Paola Yanguas Parra, policy analyst at Climate Analytics.

Parra insisted that, in order to achieve the carbon-emission reduction milestone of the Paris Agreement, Climate Analytics research suggested that every country must stop burning coal by mid-century, so efforts to get rid of coal must start now.

The Global Coal Exit List, which was released at the UN Climate Summit in Bonn, Germany, last year, revealed that more than 770 companies were still actively engaged in coal-related business, that 225 firms were planning to expand coal mining and that 282 were planning new coal-fired power stations.

WLL NEW AUSTRALIAN PM, SCOTT MORRISON, SAVE HIS PARTY?

Andrew Bolt: Can Scott Morrison End The Liberals’ Civil War?
Herald Sun, 24 August 2018

SCOTT Morrison today became Australia’s seventh prime minister in 11 years, without asking voters or even giving a single interview to tell us why he should get the job. That alone will deepen public disgust with Australian politics, but for Morrison the first challenge is this — will his win end the civil war that’s tearing apart his Liberal party?

Morrison’s task is huge.

This Pentecostal Christian who stopped the boats as Immigration Minister is nevertheless not trusted by many conservatives, especially after ratting out on Tony Abbott in the Malcolm Turnbull coup in 2015.

Abbott despises him. Peter Dutton, defeated in today’s ballot, will resent him.

But Morrison did get the votes of the Liberal Left after Turnbull used his last 24 hours as Prime Minister to desperately still holding the leadership challenge to buy his Treasurer time to win more votes.

If Morrison can now heal old animosities with the conservative wing, he may yet get some pretence of unity in the party that today seems utterly shattered by hatred and ideologies.

Dutton immediately pledged Morrison his “absolutely loyalty”, but Abbott in declaring there was now a “government to save” did not congratulate Morrison on his win.

But much depends on what policies Morrison now comes up with, especially on electricity prices and global warming — the issue that destroyed Turnbull’s leadership when 13 Coalition MPs threatened to vote against his National Energy Guarantee (NEG) in Parliament.

Here, the omens aren’t good, especially with Energy and Environment Minister Josh Frydenberg, architect of the NEG, overwhelmingly elected Morrison’s deputy.

Frydenberg is very able, with at least grudging respect on both sides of the party.

But unless Morrison and Frydenberg now junk or drastically revise the NEG they’ve spent months selling, a critical rift remains between the Liberal Leftists who preach global warming and the conservatives who warn that the NEG is all pain for no gain.

And what of that other hot-button issue that Turnbull dodged and Dutton and Abbott raised: immigration?

Morrison trashed the idea of cutting back on the huge numbers of immigrants coming in when Abbott demanded it, and kiboshed a modest cut when Dutton last year suggested it.

But now what, with polls showing wide opposition to the level of immigration today?

Most commentators will judge this contest as a popularity contest. But the rest test will be policy.

Morrison may sell things better, but that means nothing if the public doesn’t want what’s in his shop. That will be the key: will Morrison just sell the same Turnbull stuff, but better? Or will he offer something different? Will he be more spin or more substance?

The omens don't look too good.

TRUMP'S CHOICE FOR SCIENCE ADVISOR GETS APPROVAL FROM ALL SIDES

In a rare burst of near unanimous support for the President, his choice of Kelvin Droegemeier of Oklahoma to be his science advisor seemed to be welcomed by the vast majority, as someone with all the qualities needed for the job, according to this article.  

WOULD WE BE GRASPING AT STRAWS BY BANNING THEM?

This piece looks at the pressure in the USA to ban plastic drinking straws, just as in the UK. But the reality is that the main culprits for polluting the oceans with plastic are not the USA or the UK, but in fact, countries in Africa and Asia. Therefore our bans will have very little effect, but simply be a form of virtue signalling, achieving very little in practice.

WORLD'S FORESTS ARE INCREASING

This article explains how new research has shown that the proportion of the world that is taken up by forests is not declining as the majority of media stories would have you believe. In fact it is increasing.

ANOTHER CLIMATE CHANGE LAWSUIT BITES THE DUST

This piece gives the details. Surely this must be the right decision. As the judge said, it is the job of our political leaders to decide on policies like this. The courts are there to deal with matters where individuals or groups of individuals have a clear case which can be proved, whereas the climate has always varied and there is no way to tie an individual event to any specific body.

WESTERN USA TENDS TO BE IN DROUGHT MORE OFTEN THAN NOT

This post looks at the normal climate of the western USA and concludes that it has often had long periods of drought.  So the handwringing over the recent drought is under a false premise - that California is normally supplied with adequate water by nature. It never was and with more and more people living there it will require more and more water by artificial means.  

ARCTIC MELT WAS MUCH EARLIER IN MEDIEVAL WARM PERIOD SAYS NEW PAPER

This paper reveals new evidence that in both the Medieval and the Roman warm periods Arctic sea ice began to melt two months earlier than now. Scientists have determined that today’s Arctic sea ice concentrations are still much higher than they have been for most of the last several thousand years, undermining claims that modern era Arctic sea ice changes are remarkable, unusual, or unprecedented. 

IS AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT ABOUT TO COLLAPSE OVER CLIMATE ISSUE?

This piece updates our knowledge of the climate debate in Australia. It looks as though the government is in a precarious position with a leader who is out of touch with many of his MPs and with his voters. Will they stick with him and the Paris Agreement or ditch both? Interesting times! 

BRAZIL'S TRUMP WANTS TO LEAVE THE PARIS ACCORD

This article gives the details. If Brazil were to leave it then surely it would be dead. Slowly we see the remarkable hold of global warming hypothesis is weakening

JAPAN'S RURAL TEMPERATURE STATIONS SHOW COOLING OVER PAST 20 YEARS

This piece from the excellent website No Tricks Zone highlights an inconvenient fact for those trying to persuade us that our climate is warming up - in Japan the rural sites show a cooling trend for the past 20 years. That's a fact that you won't hear on the mainstream news channels.

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

Quote of the Week:
“The greatest challenge facing mankind is the challenge of distinguishing reality from fantasy, truth from propaganda. Perceiving the truth has always been a challenge to mankind, but in the information age (or as I think of it, the disinformation age) it takes on a special urgency and importance. – Michael Crichton [H/t Tim Ball] 

The above quote was sent to me by the Science and Environment Policy Project (SEPP) and it immediately struck me that it was absolutely right. We are constantly bombarded with information, much of it is from a certain perspective. Not only that, but much other information is kept back from us.

AUSTRALIANS TO PAY A HIGH PRICE UNLESS THEY WITHDRAW FROM PARIS CLIMATE AGREEMENT

This piece explains why it is important for the Australians to leave the Paris agreement.  A study by the Institute of Public ­Affairs, “Why Australia must exit the Paris Climate Agreement”, estimates the Paris target of reducing emissions to 26-28 per cent on 2005 levels by 2030 will impose a $52 billion economic cost between now and 2030, equating to $8566 a family.

YOUTUBE GETS THE SHARP END OF THIS WITTY LETTER

You have probably heard that YouTube are proposing to counteract some climate sceptic videos by putting some sort of warning on them referring to what they purport to be the truth.  This piece uses sarcasm to make the point brilliantly that there are many climate change believers who need to have warnings on their videos. I hope that YouTube see the point and stop this kind of nanny-know-best nonsense before they alienate their own customers.  

A CARBON TAX IS A VOTE LOSER FOR THE LEFT

This article explains why. Basically to raise significant sums of money the level needs to set high, but if it is and it lowers carbon emissions then it will raise less tax and so need to rise......etc. A bit like filling a bucket which is being shot at causing a constant increase in holes.  Of course, raising tax from industry will cause prices to raise, reducing competitiveness and hence sales, resulting in job losses and eventually closure of businesses. 

GLOBAL CLIMATE FUND DESCENDS INTO CHAOS

This article explains the details.  It appears that the people running the fund get on about as well as ferrets in a sack, which is not surprising as most of them come from the developing nations who are wanting to have a share of the pot.  It is a recipe for disaster and fraud.  When is the West going to learn?

USA DECIDES NOT TO GO FOR GREATER FUEL ECONOMY STANDARDS

This article explains the reasons for the decision, which are a triumph of sound common sense over extreme environmentalism.  People want  "affordable options, sizes and features that meet our individual needs. We’re tired of having urban and government intellectuals, pressure groups and ruling elites dictating our vehicle choice, steadily reducing our access to full-size sedans, mini or full-size SUVs, light trucks, panel trucks or whatever vehicles best meet our diverse family, boating, camping, farming, ranching, small business or other needs." And so say all of us! 

HOTHOUSE EARTH HYPOTHESIS IS EXTREMELY DODGY

GWPF Observatory, 7 August 2018

Dr David Whitehouse, GWPF Science Editor

No new science, no new scenario and consequently no new cause for panic.

It’s been a long heatwave in much of Europe which has prompted questions like ‘what is the influence of climate change on this year’s heatwave?’ Some claim that it’s twice as likely to occur, while others claim that climate change is making it worse. “This is the face of climate change,” says Professor Michael Mann. There is a feeling in the hot air that this summer is showing the way of the future. Expect this kind of thing more often is the cry.

Whatever way the evidence points, wherever the argument goes or the temperature changes in the future, the media have loved the “Earth’s on Fire,” headlines. But if you thought that was bad wait for the apocalypse. A new paper claims were are heading to a “Hothouse Earth,” and perhaps soon. Cue the heatwave fever on steroids.

The first thing to bear with the paper that suggest this is that it is a “Perspective” paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the USA.

Yet, it is not a research paper and contains nothing new in the way of climate science. It is a future scenario pieced together by quoting selected (cherry-picked) references with a lot of hand-waving in-between. The author’s say it’s not conclusive, and they hope it’s not going to be true. They have a responsibility to ask the question, they claim, admitting its extreme.

The report starts as it continues. It says the formalisation of the Anthropocene – the controversial ‘geological’ epoch in which mankind allegedly dominates natural processes – is being considered by the stratigraphic community. Just a few days after this paper was accepted for publication, the International Commission on Stratigraphy decided against endorsing the Anthropocene, saying that we live in the Meghalayan Epoch instead. However the author’s then go on to say that it is actually irrelevant what the geological community decides, they are going to claim the Anthropocene exists anyway. Human activity, they conclude, now rivals geological forces.

So the authors ask, ‘Is there a tipping point’, a threshold, in climate change and where might it be? How much will the Earth warm and how fast? Earlier this year a paper in Nature revised the calculation of how greenhouse gases drive up the planet’s temperature. It reduced the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half and concluded that any worst-case scenarios were unlikely. It’s not mentioned in the “Perspective.”

Fork In The Road

The paper’s conclusion is that we have already broken out of the Ice Age-Interstitial see-saw of the Late Quaternary (last 1.2 million years), and that the one degree C temperature rise since pre-industrial times is nearing the upper envelope of interglacial conditions. “The Earth system may have already passed the ‘fork in the road’ of potential pathways,” the write, suggesting that the next glaciation might not happen. Next they speculate that, “biogeophysical feedback may be stronger than normally assumed.”

This whole scenario moves into what many would regard as extreme scientific speculation. There is no real evidence in the scientific literature that a rise of global temperatures by two degree C above pre-industrial temperatures will be a tipping point. The most recent report by the IPCC rejected such doomsday scenarios as highly unlikely. There is no new science that this is a threshold after which global warming will become unstoppable. No new science, no new scenario and consequently no new cause for panic. But that’s not the message in the media.

There is nothing wrong with presenting an extreme scenario in order to highlight possibilities and to stimulate research. But as far as presenting it to the public, and as far as reporting it by the news media, it is essential to put it into the context of scientific facts and research. The vast majority of climate scientists are not predicting a hothouse Earth. This provocative paper contradicts the scientific state of climate research. If it is a warning then it should not be presented as a prediction. It does not warrant all the lurid headlines.

But it has been a very hot summer and a cool approach and rational perspective has gone out of the window like the hot exhaust from an air-conditioning unit. In the words of Dr Phil Williamson of the University of East Anglia quoted in the media, “In the context of the summer of 2018, this is definitely not a case of crying wolf.”

Feedback: david.whitehouse@thegwpf.com

GLOBAL TEMPERATURES WERE WARMER LAST SUMMER - CHECK THE DATA!

This report gives the data which proves all the hype is just that. We are being fed a constant stream of misinformation to try and convince us that we are experiencing an alarming rise in temperatures when in fact the data for the whole world is not saying that at all.

TRUMP SEEMS TO BE GOING SOFT ON CLIMATE ALARM

This piece looks at his new choice for the post of Office of Science and Technology Policy. For all his flaws his climate scepticism was one thing that won me over, so I would be very disappointed if he rows back on it. The free world depends on him.

PAKISTAN GOES FOR COAL TO KICK START THE ECONOMY

This piece tells us, just like the previous one, that the developing nations have no intention of being left behind with only unreliable renewable energy to splutter along with.  As always don't look at what people say they will do. Instead look at what they actually do.

INDIA GOES FOR THE SHALE REVOLUTION WHILE EU DITHERS

This article gives the details. What it shows is that India is determined to get up to the level of the West and is not really concerned about global warming or climate change, and yet we are constantly being told that they are really worried about it and are doing all they can to use renewable energy. In reality it is complete nonsense. They go along with the global warming/climate change meme in the same way that an eight year old child goes along with the Father Christmas idea - because they believe there are presents to be had! 

HOW DATA TAMPERING TRANSFORMED THE TEMPERATURE RECORD IN THE USA

This piece explains how a record showing a general cooling trend over the past century was changed to a warming trend.  As this was done by the "experts" in charge of it there was no easy way to argue against it. Luckily some people kept copies of the original data so it could be exposed.

WILL THE MEAT AND DAIRY INDUSTRY BE NEXT TARGET FOR CLIMATE ACTVISTS?

This article makes interesting, if rather worrying, reading for those of us who believe in freedom of choice. It underlines the point that controlling CO2 emissions means controlling every aspect of our lives.  As one commenter put it "Short of closing down civilisation as we know it, inclusive of all industries including farming, it is thus futile, as well as ludicrous to think we can sensibly set “carbon emission” targets and change things to an appreciable degree. It’s just as well anthropogenic global warming isn’t happening – and isn’t going to happen – to any significant and damaging amount."

FINALLY THE TRUTH ABOUT SMART METERS COMES OUT

Of course blog readers have known this for some time, but finally one of the big electricity providers has admitted that they are waiting for enough (naïve) customers to sign up for one so that they can introduce variable time charging. See here. This will mean it will be impossible to challenge your bill ever again as it will be too complicated. But one thing's for sure, your bill won't be getting any smaller, unless you stop using electricity in the peak periods, which is when everyone wants to use it to cook meals and watch evening TV, heat their homes etc. There is no escape - Big Brother is watching you!

WILDFIRES IN DECLINE DESPITE RECENT HIGH PROFILE DESTRUCTION

Climate Alarmists Burned By Studies Showing Destructive Wildfires In Decline
Valerie Richardson, The Washington Times, 31 July 2018

Global burned area dropped by about 25 percent over the previous 18 years, study shows

Scenes of Californians fleeing their homes and Greeks swimming out to sea have fuelled alarm about climate change fuelling deadly wildfires, but recent studies show that such destructive blazes are on the decline worldwide.

A September 2017 report in the journal Science found that global burned area dropped by about 25 percent over the previous 18 years, a finding consistent with a May 2016 paper published by the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

“[G]lobal area burned appears to have overall declined over past decades, and there is increasing evidence that there is less fire in the global landscape today than centuries ago,” said the study by British researchers at Swansea University.

Even in California, which for years has wrestled with fire devastation, a study in the International Journal of Wildland Fire found that the number of wildfires burning more than 300 acres per year has been tailing off since a peak in 1980.

“The claim commonly made in research papers and the media that fire activity is increasing throughout the western USA is certainly an over-statement,” the authors, Jon E. Keeley and Alexandra D. Syphard, said in The Orange County Register.

Mr. Keeley is a scientist with the U.S. Geological Survey, and Ms. Syphard is with the Conservation Biology Institute.