Monday, 17 June 2019


The Times, 10 June 2019

Households trying to “go green” with their energy supply are being let down by misleading tariffs, a report states.

An analysis of 54 dual-fuel deals with a green component has found that only one in five comes from 100 per cent renewable sources. More than half have no renewable gas component at all and most of the rest offer only carbon offset schemes that have been criticised as ineffective and open to exploitation.
Two out of three tariffs offered by one company with the word “green” in the title include no renewables at all.
About one in seven households is on such a tariff and one million homes are supplied with “green” gas, an increase of 150 per cent in a year.
The study says that recent events, such as the Extinction Rebellion protests and Sir David Attenborough’s programme Climate Change — The Facts have increased demand for green energy deals. It says, however, that consumers wanting to switch are being let down by an industry lacking transparency.
Peter Earl, of, which conducted the study, said:
“The energy market clearly has a way to go before it is able to offer all consumers a truly green option. We can see customer appetite is there but in the majority of cases what is currently on offer doesn’t quite meet the mark for consumers and the current labelling of ‘green’ can be confusing. We need more renewable energy, more price competition and a greater array of green tariffs that are properly and transparently labelled. People want to change and it’s time the industry delivered.”
Full story

Sunday, 16 June 2019


There seems to be a manic frenzy to declare the earliest date to go net emissions free. In this insane world it seems Labour will take the crown. 
Financial Times, 14 June 2019

A Labour government would introduce an earlier net-zero carbon emissions deadline than the current 2050 target under plans being considered by the party leadership, according to shadow chancellor John McDonnell.

In an interview with the Financial Times, Mr McDonnell said he was talking to experts about whether it would be possible to hit the target as early as 2030, as demanded by many left-wing activists.
Theresa May on Wednesday sought Parliament’s assent to legislate for the 2050 target, as recommended by the official Committee on Climate Change.
“Net zero” means that any greenhouse gas emissions would be balanced by schemes to offset carbon from the atmosphere, such as planting trees or using carbon capture and storage schemes.
The 2050 target was the subject of a political row last week when Philip Hammond, chancellor, said that fulfilling the pledge would cost £1tn and lead to public spending cuts, a claim rejected by Downing Street.
Now Labour is under pressure from activists to adopt a much tougher target than the Conservative government.
Full story

Saturday, 15 June 2019


Regular readers may remember that a motion calling for a climate emergency was to be discussed by the Environment Panel at New Forest District Council on 13 June. I can report that the matter was discussed at a meeting with several members of Friends of the Earth in attendance. Their spokesman made a statement in which she asserted that the "there is the strongest scientific evidence that the world is warming rapidly and that human activity since the start of the industrial revolution is largely responsible" and that we must "act now for future generations". After the Motion was put there was a brief discussion with impassioned pleas in favour. However the proposer was unable to answer my questions which were 1. how much would it cost, and 2. what effect would this have on the climate, when China emits 26% of world emissions compared to our 1%? He claimed that his motion was not intended to be precise, but merely a statement of intent, which of course is not the case, as anyone reading it can see.

So after a brief discussion the chairman proposed that the motion should be looked at in more depth by a small group of councillors who will make a report back to the panel, which is expected to be in September. I am pleased to say that I will be on the group preparing the report, as will the proposer. I will update readers on future developments. 

I think our council's approach is a lot better than simply passing it without any serious thought or research, as some other councils appear to have done. Even our government has passed a "climate emergency" motion without even taking a vote. We are living in very strange times. At some point people will realise that the king really has no clothes! 

Friday, 14 June 2019


Germany's Greens Oust Merkel's Christian Democrats As Most Popular Party
The Daily Telegraph, 9 June 2019

Angela Merkel's successor as leader of Germany's ruling Christian Democrats (CDU) party is under growing pressure after polls showed the Green party has forced it into second place in the polls.
Three polls published in three days this week showed the Greens pulling ahead of the CDU, making them Germany's most popular party for the first time since they were founded.
The last poll, published on Saturday, put the Greens four points ahead of the CDU on 27 percent, marking a historical low for the traditional governing party of German politics.
Germany's Greens have been enjoying a surge in popularity recently and overtook the Social Democrats, their main left-wing rivals, earlier this year.
The environmentalist party's success has came as concern about climate change, biodiversity and plastic waste surged to the forefront of political debate over the last year.
 But critics within the CDU have blamed Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, who took over from Mrs Merkel as leader in December, for a string of tactical errors.
Particular criticism has been leveled at the party's chaotic performance during the campaign for the European elections last month, when a Youtube video attacking the party’s record on climate change and income inequality went viral.
The CDU were accused of panicking after they shot their own video in response, only to axe it before publication.  
Talk is already growing of whether Ms Kramp-Karrenbauer is the best person to lead the CDU into the next election.
The 56-year-old came out fighting on Sunday, warning that the Greens are too ideologically close to the radical left Die Linke party.
“People who dream of a new Green-led government need to know that they could wake up with Die Linke in power,” she told Bild am Sonntag newspaper.
Full story

Thursday, 13 June 2019


This article discusses the recent visit to Queensland, Australia by Al Gore the climate alarmist. Interestingly he was paid $320,000 by the government for the visit and, somehow, he managed to avoid mentioning the vast new coal mine that is about to open there. A case of he who pays the piper...

Wednesday, 12 June 2019


This paper makes a strong case that global warming has not caused extreme weather events to become any more common. 
"It is widely promulgated and believed that human-caused global warming comes with increases in both the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. A survey of official weather sites and the scientific literature provides strong evidence that the first half of the 20th century had more extreme weather than the second half, when anthropogenic global warming is claimed to have been mainly responsible for observed climate change."

Tuesday, 11 June 2019


Mad Climate Policies Are Plunging Europe’s Car Industry Into Crisis
Alex Brummer, Daily Mail, 3 June 2019

The drive to become more energy-efficient amid concerns over climate change, and the rush to develop mass market electric cars, are key factors in the crisis of Europe’s car industry. Germany’s once all-powerful industry is struggling to make cars compliant with eco-rules and output has plummeted.

The drive to become more energy-efficient amid concerns over climate change, and the rush to develop mass market electric cars, are key factors behind the proposed merger of Fiat Chrysler with Renault.
The deal, which will create the third-largest force in global motor manufacturing behind Toyota and VW, is the direct result of a dramatic decline in demand for diesel cars, which are considered serious polluters.
The fallout for Nissan will be closely watched in Britain given the importance of its Sunderland plant, one of the most efficient motor manufacturers in Europe.
Concern about damage to the Earth’s environment, combined with public outrage over the Dieselgate scandal when the German firm Volkswagen was exposed for cheating on fuel emission figures, led Renault and Fiat into each other’s arms.
Whereas the Blair-Brown government, to curb [CO2 emissions], made huge efforts to persuade motorists to use diesel, subsequent governments advised about its dangers and then Environment Secretary Michael Gove said Britain’s roads must be cleared of all diesel and petrol vehicles by 2040. …
Car firms everywhere are being forced to accelerate the transition from fossil-fuel internal combustion engines to hybrids (half-electric, half-petrol), fully electric cars and engines fuelled by hydrogen.
The result is much pain. Jaguar Land Rover suffered a record loss of £3.6bn (R58.3bn) last year, having invested too much in diesel cars.
Volkswagen, the world’s second-largest car company, is hurting from the £26bn (R421bn), and rising, bill for cheating on its emissions figures. Former executives face criminal charges in the US.
It and other German manufacturers have struggled to meet the tougher EU rules on emissions from exhausts.
Germany’s once all-powerful industry is struggling to make cars compliant with eco-rules and output has plummeted.
Full post

Monday, 10 June 2019


This piece examines the records to show that in reality the climate is not breaking down, as we are being told by the climate alarmist brigade. In fact on the contrary, it seems to be actually getting better on some measures, while others there is no trend.

More here.

Sunday, 9 June 2019


Gautam Kalghatgi: Is There An ‘Existential Crisis’ And A ‘Climate Emergency’ & Can The World Be ‘Carbon Neutral’ By 2030?
Global Warming Policy Forum, 6 June 2019
Prof Gautam Kalghatgi FREng FSAE FIMechE FCI FISEES, Visiting Professor, Oxford University (Engineering Science), Imperial College (Mechanical Engineering)
There is widespread belief that unless “something is done”, the world will go through an “existential crisis” because of climate change. As a result, several initiatives calling for drastic cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are gaining traction.

For instance, the Extinction Rebellion movement, which organized high-profile disruptions in central London recently, is demanding that U.K. GHG emissions should go to “net zero” by 2025. The New Green Deal (NGD) which is gaining increasing support amongst leading politicians in the U.S., is aiming to “eliminate the US’s carbon footprint by 2030 through a massive mobilization of renewable energy and energy-saving projects”. School strikes in support of drastic change in society are getting stronger. The U.K. and Scottish parliaments have passed resolutions declaring a “climate emergency”
1. The central premise appears to be that “science” says that the world is rapidly heading towards disaster and there is an “existential crisis” and a “climate emergency”. But is this true?
* All objective/empirical measures of human development (e.g., absolute poverty levels, life expectancy, share of the population that is undernourished, education…. ) have been improving consistently, particularly in poorer countries, over the past few decades
* World food production (and per capita food consumption, productivity per acre) has been increasing consistently over the past few decades ). India has just announced another bumper year for food production.

* A related point is that ‘From a quarter to half of Earth’s vegetated lands has shown significant greening over the last 35 years largely due to rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide.’  So this could repair the Earth’s climate since green plants would absorb CO2.
* According to the IPCC AR5, Ch4, the UN body which assesses the evidence for and about climate change, there is little or no empirical evidence to suggest that the incidence of tropical and extra-tropical storms, floods and droughts have increased in recent decades. The more recent IPCC report (on Global Warming of 1.5 C) does not alter these conclusions but says that there is evidence now of increased incidence of warm days and nights. However, this report also projects that such extreme weather events will increase based on model projections. To me this does not sound like an “existential crisis”, certainly not by 2030. The evidence is also discussed by Roger Pielke (see also Trends in Extreme Weather Events since 1900 An Enduring Conundrum for Wise Policy Advice)
* Though there are many claims that forest fires have been increasing, empirical evidence shows that there is no global trend. Increase of forest fires in the U.S. in the recent past has causes other than climate change
* Deaths attributed to natural disasters have declined drastically over the past century –  and    because of increased prosperity and development though the financial losses have increased for the same reason.
* There is a lot of concern about sea level rise. However, sea levels have been rising consistently for at least 150 years but there have been many reports that they are rising faster in recent years. However, there are very credible assessments of data that show that the current level of rise of 3 mm/year are not abnormal.
* Of course if there are catastrophic events like the melting of Antarctic ice, that would be a serious problem but human intervention could neither cause it nor prevent it. Anyway, how likely is this? The average annual temperature of Antarctica ranges from about −10°C on the Antarctic coast to −60°C at the highest parts of the interior.
* Incidentally, polar bear populations have been increasing or are stable apart from in a handful of locations.
* Again incidentally, I have heard many people talking about CO2 as a pollutant or even a poison but the concentration of CO2 in one’s nostril when one breathes out is around 40,000 ppm or 100 times that in the atmosphere; in a closed lecture room it is around 1000 ppm. So how can it be a poison? Without CO2, no photosynthesis and no green plants.
* Interested people might also want to read The Skeptical Environmentalist by Bjorn Lomborg and Factfulness: Ten Reasons We’re Wrong About The World – And Why Things Are Better Than You Think by Hans Rosling et al.
So in summary, there is no empirical evidence that there is an “existential threat”. The world is a far better place in almost all countries not affected by war, compared to the past. Of course, there will be some consequences of increasing temperature because of increasing greenhouse gases but as economies grow, they will be better able to cope with these changes and for growth, you need affordable energy.
Full post

Saturday, 8 June 2019


The Truth About ‘Cheap’ Solar Power: Panel Installations Fall By 94% After UK Govt Cuts Subsidies
The Guardian, 5 June 2019

The Labour party has accused the government of “actively dismantling” the UK’s solar power industry after new installations by households collapsed by 94% last month.

Rebecca Long-Bailey, the shadow business secretary, used prime minister’s questions to challenge the government’s record on climate action after scrapping subsidies for domestic solar panels from April.
Standing in for Jeremy Corbyn, Long-Bailey said solar power had the potential to cut household bills and carbon emissions while creating thousands of jobs.

“But the government, for some reason, appears to be determined to kill it off, while continuing to cheerlead for fracking,” she said.
The opposition said data showed the scrapping of home panel subsidies from April caused new solar power capacity to fall from 79MW in March to only 5MW last month.

What this actually shows is that solar energy would not have any success without subsidies.

Friday, 7 June 2019


The following piece from the GWPF highlights the total incompetence of the UK Climate Change Committee. How could any department of government be £1 trillion out and have any credibility?

GWPF Calls On Government To Reject £1 Trillion 'Net Zero' Target 


The Global Warming Policy Forum is calling on the UK government to refrain from legislating for a Net Zero emissions target and support a Treasury review into its economic impact.
The Climate Change Committee (CCC) recently recommended that the UK’s current CO2 emissions reduction target of 80% by 2050 should be amended to 100%, claiming that the projected costs would be ‘within the expected economic cost that Parliament accepted when it legislated the existing 2050 target for an 80% reduction from 1990.’ 

In a letter to the Secretary of State Greg Clark, Dr Benny Peiser, the GWPF’s director, warns that neither the Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy nor the Treasury have any confidence in the CCC’s cost assumptions for Net Zero, with the Chancellor warning the Prime Minister that the actual costs to taxpayers would be more than £1 trillion – or £1.3 billion per week by 2050.

"In light of justified concerns about the astronomical costs involved, the UK government should refrain from legislating for a net zero emissions target and support a Treasury review into its economic impact,” Dr Peiser said.
Letter to the Secretary of State (pdf) 

Thursday, 6 June 2019


UK Government Rejects Climate Change Committee Advice
Financial Times, 4 June 2019

Britain’s chancellor has rejected the advice by the Climate Change Committee for the first time since it was set up a decade ago.
The British government has been accused of trying to “fiddle” the country’s climate change targets after cabinet ministers agreed to carry forward past “overperformance” in emissions reductions to allow a potential breach of pollution limits in coming years.
The news comes as the UK is preparing to adopt one of the most ambitious long term carbon targets in the world of net zero emissions by 2050 and as London lobbies to host the UN climate talks in 2020.
Ministers decided over the weekend to use past over-performance in emissions reductions by all sectors of the economy to relax the agreed limits up to 2027, ignoring a warning from the government’s climate advisory group.
John Gummer, Lord Deben, the chair of the Committee on Climate Change, wrote to ministers in February urging them not to take advantage of the existing rule that allows the target to be changed in such circumstances.
But cabinet ministers are proceeding with the manoeuvre after Philip Hammond, the chancellor, wrote last week to colleagues urging them to reject the CCC’s advice for the first time since it was set up a decade ago. His proposal has been adopted by Greg Clark, business secretary, whose department is responsible for the policy.
The UK is already off track, in terms of meeting its carbon budget for the next period of 2023 — 2027, according to government projections. […]
There is a broad cabinet consensus on accepting the 2050 target, despite some ministers’ misgivings about the potential impact on the economy. Liz Truss, chief secretary to the Treasury, has argued that the decision should be left to the next prime minister given the economic implications…
Full story

Wednesday, 5 June 2019


Europe’s Green Slide Toward Irrelevance
Jakub Grygiel, The American Interest, 3 June 2019

If the European Union continues on its green path, it will slide into geopolitical irrelevance

Elections for the European parliament, regardless of the results, are always a celebration of the EU project. Blue flags with the 12 golden stars are omnipresent when a “European electorate” casts its vote in what is considered the largest election in the world outside India. But the most recent elections are important for a different reason: They are part of a longer trend that is pushing Europe toward global irrelevance.
Two election results in particular are striking, not because of their novelty but because they demonstrate the resilience of certain political forces that are leading to Europe’s withdrawal from the global chessboard.
First, the rise of the “greens” in Europe. While not a new political force, the “green” movement is no longer an afterthought. In Germany it is now the second-largest party, replacing the Social Democrats. These results reflect a continent-wide drift toward environmental concerns instead of “social justice.”
Essentially, they show the greening of the Left; the social justice warriors are now climate change worriers.
It is possible that this is just a momentary uptick in the political importance of the greens, driven by fashionable protests to save the planet. Over the past few months, for instance, teenagers across Europe happily joined a movement that invited them to skip school on Fridays to advocate for drastic policies to change the climate and save the planet. Of course, it remains to be seen whether truancy or the planet was the real motivation for these actions. But, in the end, the electoral gains of the “greens” mean that European states will come under pressure to impose even higher costs on the economies by phasing out coal and reducing emissions.
Beyond the added burden this will place on already weak economies, the increased heft of the “green” political bloc will also increase Europe’s (and especially some states’) dependency on Russian gas. Various environmental think tanks, for example, have called for the elimination of coal in ten years in order to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement.
Germany plans to dramatically decrease its reliance on coal in the coming years, and the decline of the Social Democrats (SPD) at the hands of the Greens will reinvigorate the pursuit of this goal. The outcome is that Germany, having already abandoned nuclear energy, will increase its dependence on Russian gas, pushing it toward a posture that is even more pro-Moscow. The rise of the “greens” in Europe, and in Germany in particular, is a huge victory for Russia.
Other countries in Europe, notably Poland, will likely resist abandoning coal for domestic reasons but also because of security concerns. Such a policy will pit Poland as well as other Central European states from Slovenia to Bulgaria against EU authorities, creating another line of fracture in Europe. The choice is to be coal-free but Russia-dependent, or to be anti-“green” but strategically independent.
A “greener” EU will weaken Europe. As Europe cuts its emissions, hostile powers are making it more dependent. Moreover, while European societies are enthralled by the environmentally friendly truancy of their teenagers, Russia is arming, Iran is belligerent, and China is buying its way into the Continent.
The “greens” claim they are concerned with global challenges, but in effect they are turning Europe into the weakest link in a rapidly accelerating great power competition.
If the European Union continues on this path, it will slide into geopolitical irrelevance while being at the forefront of a non-existent global fight to solve global challenges. […]
The EU elections, then, did little to arrest Europe’s long slide toward geopolitical impotence. Each European nation will have to make its own calculation as to how to adapt to this reality: by ignoring it, accepting it, or by seeking its own strategic independence through a different configuration of alliances.
Full post

Tuesday, 4 June 2019


The nuclear question is looked at in this article. Why are nuclear power stations so unpopular even among climate alarmists? Even if there are safety issues, if they really believe we are heading for Armageddon then surely it would be embraced as the preferred option.

Monday, 3 June 2019


This piece gives the details. It shows that despite the rhetoric of declaring "climate emergencies", behind the curtain the government knows that the subsidies have to be cut, or else there will not be enough money for the matters that are of much greater concern to voters, like the health service and care for the elderly. 

Sunday, 2 June 2019


This article, although from 2009, is still just as valid today, and serves as a reminder of the fact of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) which is a massive problem for those who tell us that CO2 is the cause of most of the current warming that is happening today. It is an issue that those pushing the current climate change hypothesis would like to forget, but we must not let them. 

If the climate can warm up naturally in the recent past then some awkward questions must be answered. How did it happen and why could it not happen again?

Saturday, 1 June 2019


Here is a clip - it's not that he is brilliant, but the fact that he exists is a big surprise! 

Friday, 31 May 2019


This piece looks at the reason why UK steel production is facing such a bleak future. It is due to our very high electricity prices compared with our near neighbours in France and Germany. When will our government understand how their interference in the electricity industry is causing a disaster for our industry. We' re not saving the planet, but we are in danger of losing thousands of industrial jobs.

Thursday, 30 May 2019


George Mitchell, Hero To The World’s Poor
Global Warming Policy Forum, 29 May 2019

By Chris Wright
George P. Mitchell was the founding father of the Shale Revolution. On the occasion of his 100th birthday we asked Chris Wright, who developed some of the original hydrologic fracturing technologies and worked with George’s team on the first commercial shale gas wells, to recap Mitchell’s legacy.

George P Mitchell, the father of the Shale Revolution, 21 May 1919 – 26 July 2013
Savvas Paraskevopoulos was a goat herder in Greece who migrated to the US at age 20 in search of opportunity.  His son, George Mitchell, expanded opportunity for the whole world, most dramatically for the world’s poor.  
I only met George Mitchell once when he was around 80 years old and his resolve to crack the shale code was manifest.  My company (Pinnacle Technologies) and I had the good fortune to work with Mitchell’s team for four years testing and refining radically different hydraulic fracturing techniques.  Ultimately those new Frac techniques were combined with advances in horizontal drilling to enable massive shale gas production from the Barnett Shale that underlies Fort Worth, Texas.  
Mitchell Energy had a strong, innovative technical team of engineers and geologists who had been working for years  to unlock shale gas, most notably Nick Steinsberger, Kent Bowker and Dan Steward. They were as committed as Mitchell himself to crack the shale code and harvest the enormous natural gas resources in the Barnett Shale which rapidly became the largest natural gas producing field in the US. I don’t think that any of us at the time realized that these innovations would quickly upend the global energy landscape.
We have just hit the centenary of George Mitchell’s birth. It is hard to overstate the impact of the American Shale Revolution.  Energy consumers of the world now save over a trillion dollars annually due to lower energy costs resulting from surging US production.
In the last decade both US oil production and natural gas liquids production have more than doubled. The United States rapidly transitioned from the world’s largest importer of natural gas to one of the largest exporters. The same is true for oil as the US is now the world’s fourth largest exporter of crude oil. Lower petroleum prices enrich all consumers, but most dramatic is their impact on lower income folks for whom energy costs are significant part of their total income.
In China alone two hundred million people no longer cook with wood, dung or coal, which is among the largest sources of preventable death in the world killing an estimated three million folks annually. The rapid spread of low-cost Liquid Petroleum Gas (LPG) around the world replacing indoor wood burning has already saved millions of lives. The World Health Organization estimates that three million people still die annually from indoor cooking with solid biofuels, so there are millions of more lives that will saved by the continued growth in LPG and LNG exports from the United States that continue to push down global prices.
While US exports of oil, LNG, and LPG have pushed down global prices dramatically, the domestic prices of all three commodities are even lower within the US. Lower priced petroleum products and electricity in the US has led to a surge of manufacturing, petrochemicals, and other energy intensive industries in the United States. The result is strong demand for blue collar workers who are the most penalized by high energy costs.
Today blue collar wages are rising faster in the US than white collar wages, something that has not been seen for a long time. History will likely view George Mitchell in the same light as Norman Borlaug, the founding father of the Green Revolution. Both men ultimately saved millions of lives and increased the quality of life for all, most dramatically among the world’s poor.

Chris Wright was the founder and CEO of Pinnacle Technologies from 1992-2006 and later cofounded and serves as Chairman / CEO of Liberty Oilfield Services, one of the world’s leading hydraulic fracturing companies, and Liberty Resources, a shale oil & gas producer in North Dakota’s Bakken shale. 

Wednesday, 29 May 2019


This article looks at the ludicrous situation in California where the state governor has ruled that the state's energy use must achieve zero emission capability and be carbon neutral by 2045.

However the 82% of fossil fuels dominate energy use resource by California in 2016 after a decade of state government mandated use of renewable energy, billions in carbon tax fees and more billions in renewable subsidies. This remains little changed from 2006 where 85% of the state’s total energy consumption was obtained from fossil fuels.

Tuesday, 28 May 2019


This piece gives the details. Unfortunately I am not eligible, as I am not young enough and I am not able to write in favour of the alarmist side.  However it will be interesting to see if many young people are willing to try. My bet is not many

Monday, 27 May 2019


This report tells the story. Quite what a three year-old could say about such a complex issue is beyond my comprehension, but what this whole story tells me is that we have lost the plot completely if no one dare to tell these children that there is another side to this narrative of impending doom.

The trouble is that many of our elected officials are now unable to think for themselves and are completely brain-washed on the climate issue. Those that are not are fearful of being "outed" as "deniers" or some similar insult.

Sunday, 26 May 2019


This piece explains the conclusion of the UK's Climate Change Panel. It has not had any publicity, probably because it is admitting something that they do not want the Green Movement to hear.

Saturday, 25 May 2019


This article shows how reality has finally dawned in Australia after the voters backed the governing party against an opposition that promised to drive through policies to make fossil fuels more expensive with a carbon tax. The government are opening a coal field bigger than the UK and so securing thousands of well-paid jobs. 

Friday, 24 May 2019


This short paper by Prof John Christy gives a clear account of his calculation of the amount of warming which CO2 emissions are putting into the atmosphere. He is able to put across a complex subject in a way that can be understood by the public. He is one of the leading scientists in the field of climatology.

Here he is giving a recent lecture on you tube covering the same topic.  

Thursday, 23 May 2019


This piece analyses the effectiveness of opinion polls in the light of the Australian election result. There have been a number of 'upsets' in recent years which are making us much more sceptical of opinion polls. And a good thing too! 

Wednesday, 22 May 2019


Item 15  NOTICE OF MOTION For Council meeting on Monday 20 May 2019

In accordance with Standing Order 21 Cllr M Wade will move the following motion:-

Council note:
1.  Humans have already caused irreversible climate change, the impacts of which are being felt around the world.  Global temperatures have already increased by 1 degree Celsius from pre-industrial levels.  Atmospheric CO2 levels are above 400 parts per million (ppm).  The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in October 2018 gave us 12 years to implement changes to keep global warming to a maximum of 1.5 degrees in order to avoid widespread drought, food scarcity, heat related deaths and loss of biodiversity including insects and vital crop pollinators.

2.   At present the world is on track to overshoot the Paris Agreement's 1.5 degree C limit before 2050. In order to reduce the chance of runaway global warming and limit the effects of climate breakdown it is imperative that we as a species reduce our CO2eq (carbon equivalent) emissions from their current 6.5 tonnes per person per year to less than 2 tonnes as soon as possible. 

3.  Individuals cannot be expected to make this reduction on their own. Society needs to change its laws, taxation, and infrastructure to make low carbon living easier and the new norm.

4.  Carbon emissions result from both production and consumption.

5.  New Forest District Council has already made some positive progress, but this is not enough. More can and must be done.  The Independent Panel on Climate Change in its Oct. 2018 report was very clear that action from all parts of society is necessary and local government has a responsibility to lead the way.

6, Councils around the world are responding by declaring a 'Climate Emergency' and taking action to address this emergency.

Council believes that:
1.  All levels of government (national, regional and local) have a duty to limit the negative impacts of climate breakdown. Local councils that recognise this should not wait for their national governments to change their policies.

2.  The New Forest is a unique environment and this district council has a duty to protect it. The consequences of global temperatures rising above 1.5 degrees C are potentially so severe that preventing this from happening must be a number one priority.

3.  Bold local climate action can deliver economic and social benefits in terms of new green jobs, economic savings and market opportunities, as well much improved well-being for New Forest residents - for example through reducing fuel poverty and energy bills, encouraging healthy, active travel and improving green spaces and access to nature.

This Council therefore calls on the Cabinet to:

1.  Declare a 'Climate Emergency'.

2.  Pledge to make the New Forest district carbon neutral by 2030, taking into account both production and consumption emissions.

3.  Report to full Council within six months setting out the immediate actions the Council will take to address this emergency and a plan to measure annual countywide progress towards meeting the 2030 target.

4.  Work with partners across the district and the region to deliver this new goal through all relevant strategies and plans and drawing on local and global best practice.

5.  Actively lobby the government to provide the additional powers and resources needed to meet the 2030 target. 

The above motion is being put before a number of councils by Lib Dem and Green councillors all round the country. It has been referred to the Environment Panel which meets on 13 June. I will report on the result in due course.