REVEALED - HOW THE GOVERNMENT WORKED OUT THE COST OF NET ZERO CARBON EMISSIONS IN THE UK

Surprisingly HM Treasury did not appeal against the decision of the Information Commissioner ordering them to reveal their estimate of the total cost of the UK reaching net zero CO2 emissions by 2050 and so they have now released their calculations.  These do seem to be vague to say the least, but they are the only figures they have released. Presumably they are the basis for the most expensive policy, apart from going to war, that any government has introduced.

The graph below shows how the total cost, represented by the area under the line, accumulates with years along the bottom and the cost (in £billions) along the side,

 

Along with the graph, below is the just released email giving the rest of the explanation that lead the Treasury to their conclusion of the total cost of £1 trillion. Note that CX is shorthand for the Chancellor of the Exchequer. CCC is the Climate Change Committee which advises the government on how to achieve net zero. BEIS is the Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy department of the UK.

Although there is no details of the underlying assumptions on which the figures are based there is no reason to think that this is an over-estimate. On the contrary as you can see from the piece in bold type these costs will continue beyond 2050 giving a final figure well over the £trillion mark. 

Date of email:12 June 2019  
 
CX also asked for an explanation of the £1 trillion cost figure – see below. 
 
•  You asked how HMT came to the £1 trillion cost figure for net zero. 
•  The CCC estimate that meeting net zero will cost £50bn annually in 2050. BEIS 
estimates put the figure at £70bn per annum. We consider the BEIS figure to be 
more realistic. 
•  These are net costs: gross costs would be even higher but are partially offset by 
cost savings in certain sectors, such as buildings (through energy efficiency), power 
(through cheap renewables) and road transport (where EVs will become cheaper 
than petrol/diesel cars during the 2020s). However, these figures do not capture 
the wider co-benefits of decarbonisation, such as better air quality. 
•  We do not know the profile of these costs, although the CCC argue that the UK 
should frontload its decarbonisation trajectory. On the assumption that the UK 
currently spends c. £15bn p.a. on decarbonisation, and that we adopt a straight 
line cost trajectory to 2050, spending would rise from £15bn to £50/70bn p.a. over 
the next 30 years.  
•  This equates to £975bn of total costs using the CCC figures (green area in the 
graph below) and £1,275bn using the BEIS estimates (green and blue areas). Costs 
will also continue on an ongoing basis post 2050. A number of commentators have 
acknowledged that costs are likely to be around the £1 trillion mark e.g. BBC 
editorial, Lord Adair Turner (former CCC Chair). 
•  No10 and BEIS have distanced themselves from the £1 trillion figure. We have 
suggested using the following public lines. 
 
Does this mean that HMT has signed up to the costs of £1 trillion of meeting net zero? 
•  All experts have stated that a move to a net zero economy will generate significant 
costs and challenges, as well as benefits. The Committee on Climate Change say 
this will cost £50bn annually in 2050.  
•  But what is important is that we consider how to pay for this without pushing 
costs unfairly onto households and businesses, or damaging the economy.  
•  That is why I have accepted the CCC’s recommendation to conduct a review into 

the costs of decarbonisation. 

You can read the full released document at this link: IC 46878 R8K0 Decision Notice HMT Response.pdf (whatdotheyknow.com)  

THIS WAS A REAL CLIMATE EMERGENCY

 

This article explains how new research has discovered that just 42000 years ago the Earth's magnetic field reduced to a very low level and that this would have caused dramatic changes to the climate due to cosmic radiation entering the atmosphere. It could happen again but let's hope not.

TEXAS POWER CUTS - AN UNNECESSARY DISASTER

 

This article explains how a crisis turned into a disaster for Texans, due to the powers that be ignoring the predicted extreme weather on top of reliance on unreliable wind turbines and less reliable gas pipelines.

NET ZERO POLICIES CAUSING FUEL POVERTY FOR UK'S LOW INCOME HOUSEHOLDS

 London, 15 February: The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF) has accused the government of being the main driver of energy poverty as its Net Zero agenda is making electricity ever more expensive for low-income families.

As the government is adding ever more policy costs onto energy bills and consumers face relentless price rises to pay for renewable energy and back-up power, the government has published its latest fuel poverty policy (Sustainable Warmth: Protecting Vulnerable Households in England).
 
The Government is clearly worried about the combined effect of lockdown and climate policy costs on low-income households and has published a set of measures intended to offer relief to these consumers.

However, the policies announced are inadequate and dodge the main problem: the rising cost of green energy policies on electricity bills.

Climate policy costs are adding over £10 billion per year to the national electricity bill, about a third of which will be paid by households directly through their electricity bills, increasing the price by about 40% in comparison to what it would have been in the absence of policies. 
 
There are approximately 2.2m households in the UK that use electricity for heating. Of these, about 1.8m are in England. These households are typically of lower income, with about a third having an annual income of less than £14,500 a year.
 
Assuming a price of about £180/MWh (18p/kWh) an electrically heated household will be paying between about £1,800 per year for heating, of which about £500 a year is due to climate and energy policies.

Dr John Constable, GWPF’s energy editor, said:

"The fuel poverty problem as it affects electrically heated low-income households is largely the creation of government policies and in particular the £10 billion a year subsidy cost of renewables, one-third of which hits households through their electricity bills and the remainder through the general cost of living as businesses pass on their costs.
 
"Mr Kwarteng’s measures are wholly inadequate, barely scratching the surface of the electricity bill issue, and leaving the cost of living problem caused by his climate policies quite untouched. As the UK shifts towards electric heating to reduce emissions this problem, already serious, will only get worse.”
 
Note for editors and bloggers
 
For further informations see
 
*  UK climate policies are to blame for making fuel poverty worse

BIDEN'S CLIMATE 'FIX' IS FANTASTICALLY EXPENSIVE AND PERFECTLY USELSS - BJORN LOMBORG

 

This post looks at a good article from Bjorn Lomborg, who accepts that climate change is a problem, albeit a minor one. 

Here is an interesting excerpt:

"Most rich countries now promise to go carbon-neutral by mid-century. Shockingly, only one country has made a serious, independent estimate of the cost: New Zealand found it would optimistically cost 16 percent of its GDP by then, equivalent to the entire current New Zealand budget." 

Of course we know why this is. The UK is among those trying to hide the shocking truth. We will shortly see if they continue to do so when the deadline for appealing against the decision of the Information Commissioner comes up in a week's time. See my post here: climate science: GOVERNMENT DESPERATE TO CONCEAL THE TRUE COST OF NET ZERO POLICY

HYDRO-EECTRIC DISASTER SHOULD ACT AS A WARNING

 

This article makes it clear that hydro-electric schemes have their own serious affect on the environment. In this case devastating and definitely linked to man. These schemes have their place but they cannot replace fossil fuels.

THE GREEN JOBS MYTH EXPOSED

 James Delingpole: Green jobs collapse in Germany and go to China instead. What a surprise!

Breitbart, 9 February 2021

‘Green jobs’ in the German renewables sector have collapsed by 50 per cent in less than a decade. No prizes for guessing where they’ve gone instead – but here’s a clue: it begins with ‘C’ and ends with ‘-hina’.
 

 
According to Clean Energy Wire in their report of the findings of Europe’s largest trade union confederation:
 
"The number of jobs in the German renewables sector (production and installation) has fallen from about 300,000 in 2011 to around 150,000 in 2018, the German Trade Union Association (DGB) found in an analysis of employment in the energy transition.

The drop in employment is mostly due to the collapse of Germany’s solar power industry over the past decade, as many companies were forced out of business thanks to cheaper competitors from China scooping up most of the market. The number of jobs in solar PV panel production and installation fell from a record 133,000 in 2011 to under 28,000 seven years later.
 
In the wind industry, the number of jobs dropped from its record of roughly 108,000 in 2016 to under 70,000 just two years later. “Employment with respect to construction renewable energy installations has been very dynamic in the last 20 years, both in a negative and in a positive way,” the DGB said, arguing that many more jobs could be created in the sector again."

There are two key points to be made here. First, China is not remotely interested in green issues — or ‘clean’ energy — except insofar as it enables it to gain a competitive advantage over the West while it continues full steam ahead with its fossil fuel-powered industries.

Second, the ‘green jobs’ promised by everyone from President Joe Biden to UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson as one of the benefits of their proposed Net Zero revolutions are a myth. Or, if you prefer, a blatant lie.

This was predicted in a Global Warming Policy Foundation report published ten years ago by Dr Gordon Hughes, Professor of Economics at the University of Edinburgh.
 
He wrote then:
 
"For the longer term, there is little doubt that the primary beneficiary [of green energy policies] will be China. That is already apparent from the way the market is developing."

Renewable energy, he added, will always be a net jobs-killer because of its effects on the broader economy. By driving up the cost of energy — perhaps doubling it — and diverting capital spending from more efficient sectors of the economy, renewables destroy more jobs than they create.

"In terms of the labour market, the gains for a small number of actual or potential employees in businesses specialising in renewable energy has to be weighed against the dismal prospects for a much larger group of workers producing tradable goods in the rest of the manufacturing sector."
 
We can’t say we weren’t warned. Net Zero is a looming disaster and the politicians steering us towards it are doing so with their eyes wide open – and their tongues as forked as a snake’s.
 

LOCKDOWNS FOR DECADES - IS THAT THE FUTURE TO REACH NET ZERO?

 Paris Climate Agreement requires COVID-like lockdowns for decades, climate scientists warn

CNS News, 9 February 2021

The study says that reaching the Paris Accord goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would require similar COVID-like lockdowns every year.


 
A study by researchers at the Karlsruhe Institute for Technology (KIT) in Germany showed that because of the lockdowns imposed by COVID-19, CO2 emissions worldwide were estimated to be 8% lower in 2020, but measurements so far have revealed no CO2 decrease in the atmosphere. In addition, the study said that reaching the Paris Accord goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would require similar COVID-like lockdowns every year.

The study, entitled Can We Measure a COVID-19-Related Slowdown in Atmospheric CO2 Growth? Sensitivity of Total Carbon Column Observations, was published in the scientific journal Remote Sensing and produced by Dr. Ralf Sussmann, PD, with the Atmospheric Environmental Research Division of KIT's Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, and KIT researcher Markus Rettinger.

In a statement, KIT said, “The corona pandemic has changed both our working and our private lives. People increasingly work from home, have video conferences instead of business trips, and spend their holidays in their home country. The lower traffic volume also reduces CO2 emissions. Reductions of up to eight percent are estimated for 2020.”

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), “cumulative reductions of about this magnitude would be required every year to reach the goals of the Paris Agreement by 2030,” stated KIT. “Recent measurements by researchers of KIT revealed that concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere has not yet changed due to the estimated emission reductions.”

"In spite of the reduced emissions, our measurements show that CO2 concentration in the atmosphere has not yet decreased," said Dr. Sussmann in a press release. "To reduce CO2 concentration in the atmosphere in the long run, restrictions imposed during the corona pandemic would have to be continued for decades. But even this would be far from being sufficient."
 
He continued, "The restrictions imposed during the corona crisis, however, are far from being sufficient. They have just resulted in a one-time reduction by eight percent. To reach zero emissions in the coming decades, cumulative reductions of the same magnitude would be required every year, i.e. 16 percent in 2021, 24 percent in 2022, and so on.”

“For this, political measures have to be taken to directly initiate fundamental technological changes in the energy and transport sectors,” said Sussmann.

Full story

COUNCIL PLANNERS TO HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AT COAL MINE APPLICATION

 

This article shows what is happening with the application to open a new coal mine. I didn't know they could review a decision once it had been passed. Imagine that you got planning permission for an extension and then the council decided to revisit it. It seems that nothing is off limits these days.

SMART METERS THE THINGS WE HAVE NOT BEEN TOLD

 Little by little we are beginning to realise that Smart Meters are not being pushed on us for our benefit . Now we are being told this - you will read that, just as I expected, the true purpose of Smart Meters is to give power to the authorities to switch your supply off when the supply is insufficient, which with renewables means when the wind isn't blowing or the sun is not shining.

GOOD NEWS ON CLIMATE - NO NEED TO WORRY

 London, 4 February: The familiar narrative of a climate "emergency" is not supported by a vast body of observational data, according to a new paper published by the Global Warming Policy Foundation.

 
Contrary to popular belief there is little evidence of harmful trends from the impact of global warming. According to the paper's author, Dr Indur Goklany,

"Almost everywhere you look, climate change is having only small, and often benign, impacts. The impact of extreme weather events ― hurricanes, tornadoes, floods and droughts ― are, if anything, declining. Economic damages have declined as a fraction of global GDP. Death rates from such events have declined by 99% since the 1920s. Climate-related disease has collapsed. And more people die from cold than warm temperatures"

And even sea-level rise - predicted to be the most damaging impact of global warming - seems to be much less of a problem than thought. According to Dr Goklany, reviews of historic maps and satellite imagery have shown that the places predicted to disappear are in fact still with us.

"A recent study showed that the Earth has actually gained more land in coastal areas in the last 30 years than it has lost through sea-level rise. We now know for sure that coral atolls aren't disappearing and even Bangladesh is gaining more land through siltation than it is losing through rising seas."

Empirical data also shows that food production per capita has increased by 30% since 1961 despite a more-than-doubling of the global population. Hunger and malnutrition have declined, area burnt by wild fires has declined, and since 1950 poverty has declined, people are wealthier and global life expectancy has increased from 46 years to 73 years.
 
Dr Goklany's paper Impacts of Climate Change: Perception and Reality is published by the Global Warming Policy Foundation and can be downloaded here (pdf).

HERE'S A CLUE TO THE TRUE COST OF NET ZERO

While the government are still shy about telling us the cost of decarbonising the country, this article gives us a glimpse of the truth. As Paul Homewood says,

"£143 billion over ten years! Over the 5.7 million homes quoted, this amounts to £25,000 per home. Even if there were any energy cost savings, which there won’t be, they would be tiny in comparison.

Scaled up to the national level, the cost would rise to £677 billion" - So just imagine what the total cost of net zero will be!

GOVERNMENT DESPERATE TO CONCEAL THE TRUE COST OF NET ZERO POLICY

 Are you, like me, wondering when the Treasury will be complying with the Information Commissioner's decision requiring them to publish the calculations leading to the £ TRILLIONfigure for the cost of reaching net zero emissions. You can read the lengthy judgement of the request here . It appears there is still some time to wait before the information is released as they have up to 35 days from the decision (made on 20 January). This takes us to 24 February. However if HM Treasury were to appeal, and given how hard they fought to prevent this decision I would not rule it out, they could appeal up to 20 days from the decision (up to 17 February) and then there would be a few more months leading to another decision.

CHINA AND INDIA POWER AHEAD ON COAL, OIL AND GAS (USA TAKE NOTE)

 China increases coal production & imports

MenaFM, 24 January 2021

China's raw coal production increased by 0.9 percent year on year in 2020, while its coal imports augmented 1.5 percent, statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed.
 
A total of 3.84 billion tons of raw coal were manufactured in China last year, reporting a year-on-year expansion of 90 million tons, according to the NBS statistics.
 
In December alone, the raw coal production increased 3.2 percent from a year ago to 350 million tons, 1.7 percentage points higher than the upsurge seen in November.
 
 
4) Meanwhile, India to cut taxes to boost domestic fracking and oil drilling  
Economic Times of India, 27 January 2021

Cess on domestic crude is currently levied at the rate of 20 per cent of the value of oil. Official sources said the proposal by the Union Oil Ministry is to reduce it to 10 per cent



New Delhi: The government may give a 'Make in India' push to oil and gas explorers, as it is considering a proposal to almost halve cess on domestic crude oil to encourage exploration activity and allow Covid-hit oil producers to protect their margins.The glut in the oil market and deep suppression of demand during the peak of pandemic in 2020 had pushed down crude oil prices to unprecedented levels.
 
Though crude prices have recovered over the vaccination drive against Covid and a pick in demand coupled with unilateral production cut announced by Saudi Arabia, cess puts domestic crude at a disadvantage against imported oil.
 
Cess on domestic crude is currently levied at the rate of 20 per cent of the value of oil. Official sources said the proposal by the Union Oil Ministry is to reduce it to 10 per cent. If this is accepted by the Finance Ministry, the changes may be announced as part of Budget 2021-22 proposals, sources said....
 
The government is looking to reduce the tax burden on oil companies to push up domestic production that has stagnated for past several years at around 30-35 million tonne.
 
Full story

RUSSIAN GAS PIPELINE GETS LAID DESPITE BIDEN'S OBJECTIONS

This article highlights the futility of Biden's policy of sanctions on Russia as well as the nonsense of  the EU on the one hand claiming to be cutting the use of fossil fuels, while at the same time building this new pipeline. As the saying goes ' it's not what they say, but what they do' that counts.

 Defying US sanctions and EU lawmakers, Russian ship lays Nord Stream 2 pipe in Danish Waters

New Europe, 26 January 2021 

Despite US sanctions and a European Parliament resolution, Russian pipe-laying ship Fortuna has started work in Danish waters ahead of the resumption of construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline which would bring Russian gas to Germany under the Baltic Sea.



“The laybarge Fortuna has started works in the construction corridor in the Danish EEZ, ahead of the resumption of the Nord Stream 2 construction. All works are performed in line with relevant permits,” a spokesman for Nord Stream 2 told New Europe on January 25.
 
He referred to the notice to mariners by the Danish Maritime Authority (DMA). “The authorities announced construction works from January 15 onwards, including preparatory works and tests before pipelay works start,” he said.
 
MEPs passed a resolution on January 21 calling on the EU to immediately stop the completion of Nord Stream 2. MEPs also underline that the EU should no longer be a welcoming place for Russian wealth of unclear origin,” the European Parliament said in a press release.
 
With a view to the new administration in Washington, MEPs stressed that the EU should use this momentum to strengthen transatlantic unity in protecting democracy and fundamental values against authoritarian regimes.
 
The Nord Stream 2 pipeline is already facing US sanctions under its Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). Washington has said that the Nord Stream 2 would make Europe more dependent on Russian gas, undermining EU energy security. At the same time, however, the US is trying to promote sales of its own liquefied natural gas (LNG).
 
Full story

CAN US REPUBLICANS STILL STOP BIDEN REJOINING PARIS AGREEMENT?

 US Republican bill to block Paris climate agreement reignites Senate ratification debate

Valerie Richardson, The Washington Times, 23 January 2021

Rep. Lauren Boebert, Colorado Republican, has introduced a bill to block the Biden administration from reentering the Paris agreement until it receives Senate confirmation, a nod to the longstanding debate over the accord’s legitimacy.
 
Rep. Lauren Boebert, Colorado Republican, introduced legislation Jan. 21, 2021, to require Senate ratification of the Paris climate agreement. 
Her bill, which has 11 GOP cosponsors, bars Congress from appropriating funds to implement the international climate accord until it receives Senate ratification, a step that former President Obama skipped when he used his executive authority to enter the agreement in 2016.

“My bill prohibits Congress from spending a single penny on the Paris Agreement until this treaty is ratified by the United States Senate,” said Ms. Boebert in a Thursday press release. “Joe Biden took an oath to uphold the U.S. Constitution. If he wants to keep it, he must transmit the job-killing Paris Agreement to the U.S. Senate for ratification.”

The bill has little chance of passing the Democrat-controlled House, but the legislation has drawn attention to the debate over whether the Paris accord is an executive agreement, as the Obama administration maintained, or a treaty that requires the advice and consent of the Senate under the Constitution.

Mr. Biden, citing “a climate in crisis,” signed an executive order Wednesday to rejoin the Paris agreement after former President Trump set into motion the process to exit the accord via his 2017 executive order. The U.S. withdrawal became official on Nov. 4.

“Unilaterally entering the Paris Agreement was wrong in 2016 and it’s wrong now,” Ms. Boebert said. “Responsible energy production supports more than 230,000 Colorado jobs. The Paris Agreement puts these jobs at risk and will increase energy costs. $4 per gallon gasoline, here we go again!”

Ratifying a treaty requires a two-thirds vote of the Senate, which Mr. Biden would be unlikely to secure in the 50-50 Senate. 

Full story

NORTH SEA OIL STILL IN DEMAND FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE

 Europe's welcome gift to  Joe Biden: Norway awards oil and gas exploration rights to 30 firms

Reuters, 19 January 2021

OSLO (Reuters) – Norway awarded 61 offshore exploration blocks to 30 oil firms in its latest pre-defined areas (APA) licensing round as it seeks to find more resources close to existing fields, Energy Minister Tina Bru said on Tuesday.



A view of the Johan Sverdrup oilfield in the North Sea, January 7, 2020. Carina Johansen/NTB Scanpix/via REUTERS

Norway, which began to extract oil and gas from its offshore continental shelf 50 years ago, believes it has still only pumped about half of its available resources.
 
Firms that won stakes in the licences included Equinor, Shell, Aker BP, ConocoPhillips, Total, Lundin Energy and Eni’s Vaar Energi.
 
“These companies have shown great interest in gaining access to new exploration acreage, illustrating the industry’s confidence in continued profitability from exploration on the Norwegian continental shelf,” Bru said.
 
“The broad interest shows that companies still believe in the Norwegian continental shelf and in the future profitability of exploration,” said Anniken Hauglie, who heads the Norwegian Oil and Gas Association, an industry group.
 
Sweden’s Lundin received stakes in 19 licences, followed by Equinor with stakes in 17 licences, while Aker BP and DNO each got 10. ConocoPhillips received stakes in four licences, Total in three and Shell in one….

Norway has also invited oil firms to submit applications by Feb. 23 for 136 exploration blocks in frontier areas in the Barents Sea and the Norwegian Sea.

Last December, the country’s top court dismissed a lawsuit by environmental groups against oil exploration in Arctic waters.

Norway is western Europe’s largest oil and gas producer, with a daily output of around 4 million barrels of oil equivalent.

Full story