Monday, 3 November 2008
CLIMATE SCIENCE POLL COMING TO A CLOSE
I hope all visitors will take part in our poll (on the right hand side). So far there are over 900 votes and the result seems very clear. However with about 40 days to go I would like to see it break the magic 1000 barrier. So, if you haven't yet taken part do register your opinion. From my experience of talking to groups of people the results so far do accurately reflect the views of the public.
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You may have significant sample bias. People who visit this site are likely to agree with you, or leave before seeing or participating in the poll.
ReplyDeleteI'd be interested to see the correlation between believing CO2 is not the main cause of climate change, and believing that we have abundant supplies of fossil fuels for the foreseeable future.
A large number of visitors are on their first visit, so I don't see why they should be biased. As to the abundance of fossil fuels - that is not a matter of belief, but a matter of fact. On the other hand the theory that CO2 causes climate change is clearly a belief, since there is no evidence for it!
ReplyDeletePeople tend to seek out information that confirms their preconceptions. It's called confirmation bias.
ReplyDeleteWhat do you mean the abundance of fossil fuels is a matter of fact? I said 'for the forseeable future', and since the future has not happened yet, it can't be a fact. Belief doesn't really have to do with the presence of evidence anyway. 20% of adult Americans believe that the Sun orbits the Earth, for example.
I mean we are able to make reliable estimates of the abundance of fossil fuels. I guess any estimate is open to question. Of course my poll is only an opinion poll, but it represents a reasonable snapshot of public opinion.
ReplyDeleteEstimates for peak oil range from now until never. The most optimistic serious analysis puts it at around 2030. Only one can be right. So, which do you believe?
ReplyDeleteHow can you criticise scientists when you can't even identify and acknowledge the obvious sample bias in your own web poll?