Saturday 4 April 2009
NUCLEAR FUSION A STEP CLOSER
This BBC news report gives the details of a new fusion technology that has been successfully tested. This could be the answer to future generations once fossil fuels start to decline. It is the mad rush to decarbonise now that is so damaging, when new technology could be along later in the century.
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Perhaps you should temper your optimism a little, Derek.
ReplyDeleteFirstly, no-where in that article was it stated that the technology has been "successfully tested". It says: "Experiments will begin in June 2009, with the first significant results expected between 2010 and 2012"
Near the end of the article, it states: "If all goes well, engineers will begin to build the Hiper facility towards the end of the next decade, bringing the vision of a commercial fusion reactor one step closer to reality."
This is not even a commercial facility, producing power. The best case for just the first commercial plant must be in at least 20 years. If we are at peak oil now (it's looking increasingly likely), production will be at about 1/3 of current, given a depletion rate of 5% per annum. Needless to say, things will look much differently by then and the resources may not exist for such high-tech experiments [1].
Now, consider what is said about the funding: "In October 2008, Hiper received approximately 13m euros of funding to carry out a feasibility study. It also has access to European hardware and capability worth a further 50m euros."
With tax receipts falling, governments and corporations heading toward insolvency, the availability of these funds may not be assured. It's also possible that due to demand destruction, the need for it will be diminished, making the gamble less appealing. As financial and economic collapse continues, electricity intense industries and uses will be progressively scaled back. The following statement by the US Department of Energy backs this up [2]:
"Net generation in the United States dropped by 4.2 percent from October 2007 to October 2008."
[1] http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2009/02/of-swans-and-turkeys.html
[2] http://getenergysmartnow.com/2009/01/18/electricity-use-falling/
I'm beginning to get the idea that you don't want to see this work, Tim. If you had lived in a previous age you would have probably been a Luddite, trying to prevent the new age of steam-driven machines taking work away from the poor crofters.
ReplyDeleteDerek, I've been a software engineer working on cutting edge hardware for a decade. It's in my financial interest for high technology to continue unabated. There are very real reasons why we should be using appropriate technology and developing alternative systems to meet our needs. You can't solve a problem with the same thinking that got you into it.
ReplyDeleteWhether we should want it or not is a separate issue to whether it is likely to happen or make a difference.
Put it this way - I would not bet against nuclear fusion becoming workable in the coming century, along with many other things which we cannot imagine at the present time.
ReplyDeleteThere have always been people who believed that the future looked bleak at every age in history, and yet despite many serious problems we have survived and prospered.
Right. You are betting everything on it, and not even considering the probability and consequences of losing the bet and alternative strategies for dealing with our problems.
ReplyDeleteBy your vague anecdote and reasoning there is never anything to be worried about and take action on? This kind of mentality gave rise to the current financial and economic crisis.
No, I'm not betting on it, but I'm not betting against it.
ReplyDeleteWe should worry about real problems, not imaginary ones. There is no immediate shortage of energy, and we have plenty of time to solve the problem of future energy sources which is being researched as you can see. Be patient!