This report on Bishop Hill is about a meeting at the Royal Society into the latest IPCC report. In the report there is a table which seems to have been overlooked, or at least very much under-reported.
Here are the main points from the table:
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), also known as the Gulf Stream is very unlikely to undergo a rapid transition. This prediction has "high confidence".
It is exceptionally unlikely that either the Greenland ice sheet or the West Antarctic ice sheet will suffer near complete disintegration. This also has "high confidence".
The possibility that permafrost will become a net source of greenhouse gases has "low confidence".
It is very unlikely that methane from clathrates will undergo catastrophic release - high confidence.
There is "low confidence" in collapse of large areas of tropical forest.
There is "low confidence" in collapse of large areas of boreal forest.
There is "low confidence" in projections of changes in the frequency or duration of magadroughts.
There is "low confidence" in projections of changes in monsoon circulations.
It is "likely" that the Arctic becomes nearly ice free in September by mid century under high emission scenarios. This prediction has "medium confidence".
As can be seen from the above the only item which is likely is the loss of ice in the Arctic. So where is the catastrophe?
Here are the main points from the table:
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), also known as the Gulf Stream is very unlikely to undergo a rapid transition. This prediction has "high confidence".
It is exceptionally unlikely that either the Greenland ice sheet or the West Antarctic ice sheet will suffer near complete disintegration. This also has "high confidence".
The possibility that permafrost will become a net source of greenhouse gases has "low confidence".
It is very unlikely that methane from clathrates will undergo catastrophic release - high confidence.
There is "low confidence" in collapse of large areas of tropical forest.
There is "low confidence" in collapse of large areas of boreal forest.
There is "low confidence" in projections of changes in the frequency or duration of magadroughts.
There is "low confidence" in projections of changes in monsoon circulations.
It is "likely" that the Arctic becomes nearly ice free in September by mid century under high emission scenarios. This prediction has "medium confidence".
As can be seen from the above the only item which is likely is the loss of ice in the Arctic. So where is the catastrophe?
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