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Sunday, 28 February 2016
HAS MICHAEL MANN BECOME A CLIMATE SCEPTIC?
This article provokes the question, as it looks at a new paper by Mann and others that actually prove that the pause in global warming is real. Amazing!
Whether or not there was a pause depends on how you want to define the rightmost dip in the red line in the chart below. Whatever you want to call it, the dip is history.
The graph above shows the actual global temperature anomalies as compiled by NOAA/NCDC (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration / National Climate Data Center - http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ ) from 1975 to Jan. 2016. Individual months, a 25 month centered moving average, a least squares trend line, and 10-year warming rates are shown. The graph uses data that can be found at: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/faq/anomalies.php
Slope (green line) = 0.165 degrees C. warming per decade.
The moving average (yellow line) shows that new record high global temperatures were set through at least Jan. 2016.
Note: NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) maintains the world's largest climate data archive.
If you want to use calendar years as your measurement tool, then the NOAA/NCDC (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration /National Climatic Data Center) data shows that 2005 broke the 1998 average for record warmth. Then 2010 broke the record again. Then 2014 broke the record again. And 2015 just set still another record. (Data available at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/faq/anomalies.php )
The NASA / Columbia University temperature database shows a similar pattern. http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
The red line in the above chart shows short term (10-year) warming rates in degrees per decade. Technically, it shows the 10-year, least squares slope ending at the plot position.
The short term slope is subject to volcanic eruptions, El Nino/La Nina conditions, and/or ordinary random statistical noise. Global Warming Deniers will pick out the low points in this warming rate and claim that global warming has stopped, and/or global warming has paused, and/or global warming is in a hiatus, and/or global warming doesn’t exist, etc. When you look at the larger picture, it is obvious that these short term fluctuations are just a part of a longer term upward trend.
This might also be a good time to see what is happening in actual temperature observations vs. the IPCC expectations and the CMIP-5 climate models.
http://www.durangobill.com/GwdLiars/GwdCMIP5.jpg (Ed Hawkins is a climate scientist at the University of Reading.)
As can be seen we’ve zigzagged back up into the upper part of the expected range. More zigzgs within the range are expected for many years into the future.
What is wrong with the satellite data? It covers more of the earth and is not subject to spurious adjustments. I note that even your figures end up with 0.16degrees C per decade which equates to only 1.6 per century, which is at the lowest end of the alarmist predictions.
Whether or not there was a pause depends on how you want to define the rightmost dip in the red line in the chart below. Whatever you want to call it, the dip is history.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.durangobill.com/GwdLiars/GWDNOAAstopped1975.jpg
The graph above shows the actual global temperature anomalies as compiled by NOAA/NCDC (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration / National Climate Data Center - http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ ) from 1975 to Jan. 2016. Individual months, a 25 month centered moving average, a least squares trend line, and 10-year warming rates are shown. The graph uses data that can be found at: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/faq/anomalies.php
Slope (green line) = 0.165 degrees C. warming per decade.
The moving average (yellow line) shows that new record high global temperatures were set through at least Jan. 2016.
Note: NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) maintains the world's largest climate data archive.
If you want to use calendar years as your measurement tool, then the NOAA/NCDC (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration /National Climatic Data Center) data shows that 2005 broke the 1998 average for record warmth. Then 2010 broke the record again. Then 2014 broke the record again. And 2015 just set still another record. (Data available at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/faq/anomalies.php )
The NASA / Columbia University temperature database shows a similar pattern. http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
The red line in the above chart shows short term (10-year) warming rates in degrees per decade. Technically, it shows the 10-year, least squares slope ending at the plot position.
The short term slope is subject to volcanic eruptions, El Nino/La Nina conditions, and/or ordinary random statistical noise. Global Warming Deniers will pick out the low points in this warming rate and claim that global warming has stopped, and/or global warming has paused, and/or global warming is in a hiatus, and/or global warming doesn’t exist, etc. When you look at the larger picture, it is obvious that these short term fluctuations are just a part of a longer term upward trend.
This might also be a good time to see what is happening in actual temperature observations vs. the IPCC expectations and the CMIP-5 climate models.
http://www.durangobill.com/GwdLiars/GwdCMIP5.jpg
(Ed Hawkins is a climate scientist at the University of Reading.)
As can be seen we’ve zigzagged back up into the upper part of the expected range. More zigzgs within the range are expected for many years into the future.
What is wrong with the satellite data? It covers more of the earth and is not subject to spurious adjustments. I note that even your figures end up with 0.16degrees C per decade which equates to only 1.6 per century, which is at the lowest end of the alarmist predictions.
ReplyDelete