Monday, 3 August 2020

COASTAL PROTECTION EXPERTS NOW ROUTINELY RAMP UP THE SEA LEVEL RISE SCARE IN REPORTS

Below is a short extract from a report into the failure of sea defences in my Council area at Milford-on-sea: 

"The first groynes were constructed at Milford-on-sea between 1867 and 1898. Studies of historical maps and aerial imagery indicate that in the period between 1872 and 1932 the cliff top was retreating at a rate of between 0.1 and 1.0m per annum. Additional structures were added in 1936, these localised defences restricted shoreline movement. The period 1932 to 1963 saw an increased erosion rate of up to 1.3m per annum. These defences were extended to the east and west in the 1960's resulting in the rate decreasing to around 0.1m per annum between 1963 and 2005.

This is consistent with observations by West (2020) that suggest that the cliffs were relatively stable until the last decade. However rising sea levels of up to 1.0m by 2105 (Royal Haskoning, 2011) combined with beach narrowing potentially as a result of adjacent sea defences reducing sediment supplies from the west are now resulting in more overtopping of the existing sea defences and more rapid cliff erosion."

Notice that the report seeks to blame the failure partly on sea level rise - not based on actual figures from nearby tide gauges, but instead from a report giving projections of future sea level rise. If they used the actual figures they would show that the sea level is only rising at under 2mm per year which equates to less than 20cm, or 8 inches per century

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