Below is an interesting link which looks at a range of factors which contribute to the highly complex subject of sea level. The fear of a large rise is one of the most powerful threats made by the climate change lobby, but is it credible that sea level could rise by 1 meter or more by 2100?
Traditionally, sea level was measured by taking the average of tide gauge readings, however, since 1992 it is done by satellite. All the discussion is about an increase in the mean or average height of the sea, but only fractional increases. They were talking about millimeter increases when that type of precision wasn’t possible with tide gauges and even the TOPEX/POSEIDON satellites claim,
“Measured sea levels with unprecedented accuracy to better than 5 cm.”
It’s important to note that this estimate is with an uncertainty of 3-4 mm. This is important because the IPCC claim, “For the period 1993 to 2003, the rate of sea level rise is estimated from observations with satellite altimetry as 3.1 ± 0.7 mm yr-1.” But what are they actually measuring? It is the average variation of sea level relative to an imaginary line called the reference ellipsoid. Potential for error exists in determining the ellipsoid, the height of the satellite, in the actual measurements, and in the changes going on in the ocean and on the land. Frankly, it is useless to even talk about millimeter changes. There are so many inputs, and so many adjustments that the final results claimed are unjustified. As Carl Wunsch said,
“It remains possible that the data base is insufficient to compute mean sea level trends with the accuracy necessary to discuss the impact of global warming–as disappointing as this conclusion may be.”
He adds,
“Useful estimation of the global averages is extremely difficult given the realities of space/time sampling and model approximations. Systematic errors are likely to dominate most estimates of global average change: published values and error bars should be used very cautiously.”
Claims don’t fit the reality.
Everything was done by the IPCC to attribute the increase to global warming especially through increased sea temperature. They claimed that about 25 percent of sea level rise of the last 50 years was due to thermal expansion with that rising to 50 percent for the last decade. As with everything they do, the IPCC start with the assumption that their estimates of global warming are accurate and therefore their extrapolation of perceived trend going forward of increased sea level is also accurate. The arrogance of attributing 50 percent of the increased sea level to thermal expansion is done with a computer model that eliminates almost all the variables that cause temperature change, and the result is then applied to computer models that leave out most of the causes of sea level change.
This article is also well worth reading: Why We Must “Quit Worrying About Uncertainty in Sea Level Projections” – Watts Up With That?
The graph below shows some of the alarming projections which are being taken seriously by officials who are then using them to frighten the public. Here is a report including all the scary scenarios: Nearly 200,000 homes and businesses in England at risk of being lost to sea level rise by 2050s | Daily Mail Online
On the other hand, why are Al Gore and Barack Obama buying beachfront properties for millions of dollars if they really believe these projections? Or why are they building new airports in the Maldives? - New airport opens in the Maldives | TTR Weekly
Meanwhile back in the real world below are several graphs of sea level rise around the UK as measured by tide gauges. There is no sign, so far, of any dramatic rise. [you can click on the image to enlarge it]
https://sealevel.nasa.gov/task-force-scenario-tool
ReplyDeleteThis tool is adjustable to different scenarios and length of time. What can be learned from this is that the harsher the scenario of co2 the faster the sea level rise.
On low scenario, meaning low pollution, and 2150 notice in the caribean sea level rise is more pronounced in that area than in other parts of the world.
Now switch to high scenario and 2150. THe whole ocean is showing 3 meters of sea level rise.
Talking to you on this for a matter of time now, I notice you are quite willing to bet your money on the mainstream science being wrong. Many times the science itself is conservative. Sea level rise can't be put back in the bottle once its out. That is 1000s of years to go back to the way it was.
Sea level rise is the reason the science calls out trillions of dollars to adapt to if we don't get our acts together. The cost of 100% Renewable Energy is the best bargain on earth compared to fossil fuel use into the next century.
I have tried to show you the data from tide gauges. There are tide gauge records in the USA which also fail to sow any dramatic rise in recent years. Take a look here: http://www.sealevel.info/MSL_graph.php?id=8418150
ReplyDeleteThe computer programs, like the one you show, are designed to scare people. If sea levels do rise significantly in some areas then they will have to adapt to it. There is no way cutting CO2 is going to stop it. In most cases there are other factors which are causing sea level to rise, such as the land collapsing.