Here is another excellent post from Paul Homewood debunking the latest climate propaganda from our news output from the BBC: An Extreme(ly Nice) Summer | NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT (wordpress.com)
Yes, we had a few very hot days, but no one could realistically says this was, over all, an extreme summer. Luckily Paul has unearthed the data to prove that there is no "emergency" and no need to panic. Yes, here in the UK we are experiencing slightly warmer weather than we had in the 1850 -1900 period when we were coming out of the Little Ice Age, but for that we should be thankful, not at all panicked.
Before cop 27, some of the European ministers were making the stand Europe is warming faster than the rest of the world. The farther north you are on the equator the faster you warm. Alaska in the United States is warming faster than the lower 48 states. Increasing temperature adds energy to the storms. There is really no way around it.
ReplyDeletehttps://unric.org/en/climate-europe-warming-faster-than-rest-of-world-ipcc/
Far from being spared from the impacts of global warming, temperatures in Europe are set to rise more quickly than the global average, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) latest report shows, which details developments by region.
“Climate change is now a ‘code red’ global emergency, and this landmark report sets out the devastating impacts already hitting across Europe, and expected to get much worse,” said Selwin Hart, United Nations Assistant Secretary-General for Climate Action.
Temperatures will rise around Europe at a rate exceeding global mean temperature changes, the report found. Sea levels will rise in all European areas except the Baltic Sea, at a rate close to, or exceeding, the global average.
The frequency of extreme heat has increased in recent decades and is projected to keep increasing, and glaciers, snow cover and snow seasons will continue to decline.
To Renewableguy
DeleteYou single out "Sea levels will rise in all European areas except the Baltic Sea"
How come the Baltic sea escapes the sea level rise when sea levels must rise equally everywhere, except of course where the Maldives are sinking and others are rising because of continental shifts.
Furthermore, "temperatures in Europe are set to rise more quickly than the global average". How come human habitation has been found under the ice in Greenland, and Europe 2,000 years old.
The garbage currently being spouted clearly is a lie.
Its complicated. If you want to know more, read below.
Deletehttps://sealevel.nasa.gov/faq/9/are-sea-levels-rising-the-same-all-over-the-world-as-if-were-filling-a-giant-bathtub/
Are sea levels rising the same all over the world, as if we're filling a giant bathtub?
No. Sea level rise is uneven, the two main reasons being ocean dynamics and Earth’s uneven gravity field.
First, ocean dynamics is the redistribution of mass due to currents driven by wind, heating, evaporation and precipitation. For example, during La Niña events, sea level goes down because some rain that usually occurs over the ocean shifts to land, and the same phenomenon produces low latitude currents that redistribute seawater. Regional climate cycles, like El Niño and La Niña, and longer-term effects, like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, change ocean circulation, which changes sea level.
Earth's gravity field
A visualization of Earth’s gravity field using Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data. Gravity is determined by mass; Earth’s mass is not distributed equally, and it also changes over time. Credit: NASA/JPL/University of Texas Center for Space Research
Second, because the distribution of Earth’s mass is uneven, Earth’s gravity is also uneven. Therefore, the ocean’s surface isn’t actually a perfect sphere or ellipsoid; it is a bumpy surface. As the land-based ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica continue to unload their mass (lose ice) from far above sea level and far from the tropics, that mass reaches the sea in the form of meltwater that is then redistributed along Earth’s gravity field.
Stats across the world show increases in extreme weather events, why would Europe be exempt from this? And they aren't. Data shows Europe is getting a little more than their share of the warming in the world. ALong with that comes the extremes in weather.
ReplyDeletehttps://e360.yale.edu/digest/extreme-weather-events-have-increased-significantly-in-the-last-20-years
Extreme Weather Events Have Increased Significantly in the Last 20 Years
Floodwaters in Houston, Texas from Hurricane Harvey in 2017.
Floodwaters in Houston, Texas from Hurricane Harvey in 2017. REVOLUTION MESSAGING/FLICKR
There has been a “staggering rise” in the number of extreme weather events over the past 20 years, driven largely by rising global temperatures and other climatic changes, according to a new report from the United Nations. From 2000 to 2019, there were 7,348 major natural disasters around the world, killing 1.23 million people and resulting in $2.97 trillion in global economic losses.
By comparison, the previous 20-year period, 1980-1999, had 4,212 natural disasters, claiming 1.19 million lives and causing $1.63 trillion in economic losses.
Much of this increase, the report notes, can be attributed to climate change. Climate-related disasters jumped 83 percent — from 3,656 events during the 1980-1999 period to 6,681 in the past 20 years. Major floods have more than doubled, the number of severe storms has risen 40 percent, and there have been major increases in droughts, wildfires, and heatwaves.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/18/world/middleeast/extreme-heat.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20221119&instance_id=78069&nl=from-the-times®i_id=166212574&segment_id=113715&te=1&user_id=cf9bfe98a8a833cae642088c4712a0ff
ReplyDeleteSorry for the long link. Extreme heat is very dnagerous. The evidence is all around us.
I will point out that a minimum of 30 years of data is required to establish the climate. There is no evidence that a one degree Celsius rise in temperature will cause a change in climate.
ReplyDelete1) Beyond natural variability, our climate has not changed in my lifetime (79). The leaves are off the trees end of November as always was. ( Alarmists always conflate Climate with weather)
Delete2) 2007 Al Gore prophesied ’ Arctic Ice Free by 2013’ - Complete rubbish.
3) Spain would be like the Sahara imminent. – Complete rubbish.
4) Great Barrier reef blanching in warming seas, recent discoveries show the event is cyclical while similar coral in the warmer Indian ocean continue to thrive regardless.
5) Attenburgh spins that polar bears were threatened with extinction when the truth is far from coming extinct, - they are thriving and becoming a menace
Sea Level Rise Scare?
4) Maldives forcast to have been under water 30 years ago. Three airports now being built there How come ?
5) Same with the Phillipines some islands sinking others rising
8) Obama building new seaside residence while believing under threat of rising sea levels ?
So the last 30 years show a decent strong warming rate on earth. 2016 was a record breaking year distorting the closer trends. But then what is also being noticed is that the oceans have been warming all along as the atmospheric temperature shows a warming trend the last 175 years. With the warming trend getting stronger, not weaker. This is what makes AGW dangerous.
DeleteIs the world possibly accelerating in warming? What does the data show? Below is the method by Foster and Rahmstorf 2011 to see the trend in warming using
GSITMEP V3
https://skepticalscience.com/trend.php
1850 to 2022 172 years
Trend: 0.074 ±0.008 °C/decade (2σ)
Looks almost insignificant
1900 to 2022 122 years
Trend: 0.092 ±0.009 °C/decade (2σ)
Trend is a little bit faster. Might be just data difference.
1950 to 2022 72 years.
Trend: 0.144 ±0.017 °C/decade (2σ)
What a large increase in trend. Lets narrow it down in 10 year gaps.
1960 to 2022 62 years
Trend: 0.144 ±0.017 °C/decade (2σ)
What's going on? The trend is growing in intenisty.
1970 to 2022 52 years
Trend: 0.181 ±0.027 °C/decade (2σ)
I see a pattern, do you? THe uncertainty figure is quite low yet. As we get closer to 2022, the uncertainty will get larger.
1980 to 2022 42 years
Trend: 0.175 ±0.037 °C/decade (2σ)
Minor decrease. otherwise more like even.
1990 to 2022 32 years of data
Trend: 0.196 ±0.058 °C/decade (2σ)
Lets see if this trend increase holds.
2000 to 2022
Trend: 0.214 ±0.102 °C/decade (2σ)
Uncertainty is rather high.
2001 to 2022
Trend: 0.201 ±0.110 °C/decade (2σ)
2002 to 2022
Trend: 0.204 ±0.122 °C/decade (2σ)
2003 to 2022
Trend: 0.204 ±0.122 °C/decade (2σ)
2004 to 2022
Trend: 0.249 ±0.146 °C/decade (2σ)
2005 to 2022
Trend: 0.251 ±0.161 °C/decade (2σ)
2006 to 2022
Trend: 0.293 ±0.178 °C/decade (2σ)
2007 to 2022
Trend: 0.324 ±0.201 °C/decade (2σ)
2008 to 2022
Trend: 0.373 ±0.223 °C/decade (2σ)
Trend: 0.196 ±0.058 °C/decade (2σ)
However if you look at the satellite data there is no accelerating trend at all.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_October_2022_v6.jpg
Every satellite data set shows a strong warming trend although its a really short time span. This could very well be an acceleration.
DeleteRSSv4.0 TLT
Trend: 0.214 ±0.052 °C/decade (2σ) 1979 to 2022
Trend: 0.235 ±0.080 °C/decade (2σ) 1990 to 2022
Trend: 0.232 ±0.130 °C/decade (2σ) 2000 to 2022
Trend: 0.309 ±0.346 °C/decade (2σ) 2010 to 2022
RSSv4.0 TTT
Trend: 0.173 ±0.050 °C/decade (2σ) 1979 to 2022
Trend: 0.184 ±0.078 °C/decade (2σ) 1990 to 2022
Trend: 0.175 ±0.129 °C/decade (2σ) 2000 to 2022
Trend: 0.251 ±0.336 °C/decade (2σ) 2010 to 2022
UAHv5.6 TLT
Trend: 0.155 ±0.061 °C/decade (2σ) 1979 to 2022
Trend: 0.191 ±0.100 °C/decade (2σ) 1990 to 2022
Trend: 0.193 ±0.176 °C/decade (2σ) 2000 to 2022
Trend: 0.353 ±0.689 °C/decade (2σ) 2010 to 2022
UAHv6.0 TLT
Trend: 0.135 ±0.049 °C/decade (2σ) 1979 to 2022
Trend: 0.140 ±0.079 °C/decade (2σ) 1990 to 2022
Trend: 0.157 ±0.124 °C/decade (2σ) 2000 to 2022
Trend: 0.268 ±0.321 °C/decade (2σ) 2010 to 2022
https://skepticalscience.com/trend.php All the data trend came from this site.
DeleteIf you look at the margin of error on those stats, they make them completely meaningless. Look, for example at the ones for 2010 to 2022. The error margins on all of them are bigger than the readings themselves, meaning there could be a large positive trend or even a negative trend. Take the bottom one we have 0.268+0.321 = 0.589, or 0.268-0.321 = -0.053
ReplyDeleteOr it could be anywhere in between!
True. But it is also from a record setting El Nino in 2016. That record setting El Nino will be in there when you look at 2010 to 2030. The ocean is warming which absorbs over 90% of the global warming energy. The energy content of the earth is ever increasing due to our emissions of GHGs. The sattelite trend data isn't able to show acceleration due to its data length. The land based data clearly shows it. Then also going back to the origonal article you published, the author basically lied. That's all there is to it. And I have shown that with trend analysis.
Deletehttps://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/global-ocean-heat-content/
All I have listed is the atmosheric temperature increase. Take the ocean increase along with that that hasn't even paused. That's the global warming baked in that we can't get rid of. Its ours and we own it.
To renewableguy,
DeleteAll your so-called statistics to back up your theory is simply not credible. To imagine that micro-managing the world's climate and that we are in control is for the birds.
The human induced global warming in my view is a complete hoax.
Small variations in temperatures over fairly large periods are mere fluctuations and probably only a consequence of the world's move out of the most recent ice age.
My fundamental issue with the whole scam arises out of my belief that Mankind did not make the world, nor design its climate. We only exhibit enormous arrogance and a false sense of self-importance to assume otherwise. All our allegedly ameliorating efforts will not make a whit of difference to the climate. We have been given the use of energy dense fossil fuels to exploit not by accident but to support a huge population and massively improve its quality of life.
We need to see ourselves for what we are, and get on with life and enjoy it as best we can, instead of cow-towing to all the drivel being currently spouted by a
perverted dictatorial power-hungry conceited depressive malthusiastic and arrogant people who have the desire to subjugate our species and condemn it to endless grinding poverty ignorance and enslavement.
Ian.
You have quite the view of climate science based in very scant evidence. And yet climate science is based in overwhelming evidence. All science paths lead to "Humans have warmed the planet".
DeleteI will let you do the rest of the work needed to understand the completeness of the science on why our climate has changed. From what you have shown so far, I will put you into the category of climate denier. It takes guts and fortitude to admit when you are wrong. And I doubt you will ever open yourself to knowing the truth about climate change. I have been active with talking about climate since 2006. Collecting contrarian evidence isn't based in evidence. Its based in an emotional position about the world that refuses to accept the reality of how humans have effected the climate on earth.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_consensus_on_climate_change
Nearly all actively publishing climate scientists say humans are causing climate change.[4][5] Surveys of the scientific literature are another way to measure scientific consensus. A 2019 review of scientific papers found the consensus on the cause of climate change to be at 100%,[2] and a 2021 study concluded that over 99% of scientific papers agree on the human cause of climate change.[3] The small percentage of papers that disagreed with the consensus either cannot be replicated or contain errors.[6]