Thursday, 25 October 2018


This new report gives a thorough look at the UK climate and compares the real facts with the predictions made by the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2012, published by the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA), It is quite short and well worth reading. Its conclusions are clear and simple:

In short, although the UK is slightly warmer on average than it used to be, there is no evidence that extreme weather events have become more frequent or extreme. There is also nothing in the data to support official temperature or rainfall projections for the rest of the century. In particular, heatwaves have not become more severe, nor droughts. Rainfall data also does not support the contention that floods have become worse. There is certainly no evidence, based on past trends, that either average summer temperatures will increase by 8◦C, winter rainfall increase by 70%, or summer rainfall fall by 60% in the next few decades. There is also nothing to support the prediction that sea levels will rise by 70cm by 2095. Apart from being slightly warmer, the UK’s climate appears to be little different to the past.

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