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Sunday, 9 October 2022
NET ZERO CAUSING MODERN FARMING METHODS TO BE ABANDONED
Read this article from the Mail on Sunday to see what is happening
Failure to account for measured water vapor (which has been increasing substantially faster than possible from just feedback) is at best a mistake and perhaps science incompetence. Measured WV increase can account for all of climate change attributable to humanity. CO2 has no significant effect. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/316885439_Climate_Change_DriversReplyDelete
Atmospheric water vapor is driven by temperature of the atmosphere. Atmospheric temperature is driven by CO2. Very simple. This is a common mistake in the climate denial conversations.Delete
If the atmospheres are warmed, the saturation vapor pressure increases, and the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere will tend to increase. Since water vapor is a greenhouse gas, the increase in water vapor content makes the atmosphere warm further; this warming causes the atmosphere to hold still more water vapor (a positive feedback), and so on until other processes stop the feedback loop. The result is a much larger greenhouse effect than that due to CO2 alone. Although this feedback process causes an increase in the absolute moisture content of the air, the relative humidity stays nearly constant or even decreases slightly because the air is warmer. Climate models incorporate this feedback. Water vapor feedback is strongly positive, with most evidence supporting a magnitude of 1.5 to 2.0 W/m2/K, sufficient to roughly double the warming that would otherwise occur. Water vapor feedback is considered a faster feedback mechanism.
I really wish that comments could be related to the actual post. However to answer your point - the climate is not simple, as you seem to think. The atmosphere is not always saturated with water vapour as it becomes warmer. If you disagree, go and visit a desert! There is also the effect of clouds which are formed from water vapour. Clouds can cool the ground, as anyone who has sat outside can verify as one passes by, blotting out the sun. Clouds are poorly modelled in computer climate models. So, in summary, climate is very complex and poorly understood.Delete
Keep in mind, deserts are getting dryer and hotter. THe extra energy drives out the moisture of the land faster and heats the land longer. Even the deserts are effected by AGW.Delete
The perception that burning fossil fuels causes significant climate change is wrong. It is based on the false perception that increasing CO2 is causing planet warming. Net zero will have no effect on climate.ReplyDelete
It is simple to calculate what the average global water vapor increase rate would be as a result of just planet warming (planet warming is the net result of all forcings and feedbacks). The methodology and an example using the reported average global temperatures for HadCRUT5 are given in Sect 7 of https://watervaporandwarming.blogspot.com . The average global water vapor increase has also been accurately measured Jan 1988 to Dec 2021 by NASA/RSS using satellite based instrumentation. The Total Precipitable Water (TPW) anomalies, up to their last monthly update which is for Dec 2021, are presented at http://data.remss.com/vapor/monthly_1deg/tpw_v07r01_198801_202112.time_series.txt .
TPW is obtained by adding the baseline, 28.73, to the anomalies. These two are plotted on the same graph shown as Fig 7 in Sect 7. This shows that measured average global water vapor has been increasing faster than possible from just planet warming. The ‘extra’ water vapor rate of increase is 34% to 178% more than possible from just planet warming (depending on which reported average global temperature data is used).
This demonstrates that:
1. There have to be other sources of WV. (As determined in Sect 6, about 90% of the ‘extra’ WV is from irrigation, 8.5% from cooling towers, and only 1.5% from burning fossil fuels) My assessment for irrigation corroborates what Shiklomanov 1997 determined as mentioned by Doll in 2002 at https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2001WR000355
2. The warming from WV increase overshadows the warming from CO2 increase as an initiator of Global warming.
3. Average global temperature increase of GW has been contributed to by measured WV increase, not CO2 increase.
4. Because CO2 increase has no significant effect on temperature it cannot have a significant effect on climate.
All of average global temperature increase attributable to humanity since before 1895 can be accounted for by WV increase alone. Sect 17 of http://globalclimatedrivers2.blogspot.com
Water vapor increase is self-limiting because the capacity of the atmosphere is limited.
Below is about climate sensitivity. Water vapor isn't the only player in town. We have a very strong feedback system on earth because of water vapor. Postive feedbacks operate quite well on earth. A doubling of co2 with positive feedbacks active, is thought to produce 3*C increase in temperature.ReplyDelete
THis is a gamble suggested by you Dan that will destroy our present living system.
All the models and evidence confirm a minimum warming close to 2°C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 with a most likely value of 3°C and the potential to warm 4.5°C or even more.
1.1 Carbon cycle feedbacks
1.1.1 Arctic methane release
188.8.131.52 Thawing permafrost peat bogs
1.1.2 Abrupt increases in atmospheric methane
1.1.4 Peat decomposition
1.1.5 Rainforest drying
1.1.6 Forest fires
1.1.8 Modelling results
184.108.40.206 Implications for climate policy
1.2 Cloud feedback
1.3 Gas release
1.4 Ice–albedo feedback
1.5 Water vapor feedback
1.6 Ocean-warming feedback
2.1 Blackbody radiation
2.2 Carbon cycle
2.2.1 Le Chatelier's principle
2.2.2 Chemical weathering
2.2.3 Net primary productivity
2.3 Lapse rate
2.4 Impacts on humans
There is no gamble associated with CO2 increase up to at least twice the current level. You and a lot of others are being played because of a lack of engineering/science skill. Skepticalscience is neither skeptical or science. Nothing new and/or nothing to worry about in the Wiki list.Delete
Atmospheric CO2 is going to continue to increase. The Chinese, Africans and India will see to that. Here is what has happened so far. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1C1zOIE0po0IzFrjCW4eajDVTjEgCErS1/view?usp=sharing
This statement "Atmospheric water vapor is driven by temperature of the atmosphere." is very misleading. It is true only at saturation, i.e. in clouds. Climate Science misapplies the Clausius-Clapeyron equation. A description of how the atmosphere actually works is at https://energyredirect3.blogspot.com
This a pretty serious situation that our co2 emissions have gotten us into. IPPC AR6 reviewed 14,000 peices of literature on global warming, most of it peer reviewed science.Delete
In the air, carbon dioxide is transparent to visible light but absorbs infrared radiation, acting as a greenhouse gas. It is a trace gas in Earth's atmosphere at 417 ppm (about 0.04%) by volume, having risen from pre-industrial levels of 280 ppm. Burning fossil fuels is the primary cause of these increased CO2 concentrations and also the primary cause of global warming and climate change. Carbon dioxide is soluble in water and is found in groundwater, lakes, ice caps, and seawater. When carbon dioxide dissolves in water it forms carbonic acid (H2CO3), which causes ocean acidification as atmospheric CO2 levels increase.
Water vapor is directly tied to the temperature in the atmosphere. CO2 increase in the atmosphere is like a valve starting to shut off the escape of infrared out of our atmosphere. This causes our atmosphere to increase in temperature at the surface of the earth. THe whole weakness in your argument, is that you have ignored the direct emperical evidence that the co2 frequency of energy has increased over time. This same frequency has been the energy heating up our oceans helping to increase water vapor in the atmosphere. Now you are getting a fast feedback to co2 with water vapor. If you go to the link, this shows direct measured evidence.Delete
Spectrum of the greenhouse radiation measured at the surface. Greenhouse effect from water vapor is filtered out, showing the contributions of other greenhouse gases (Evans 2006).
The graph shows different wavelengths of energy, measured at the Earth’s surface. Among the spikes you can see energy being radiated back to Earth by ozone (O3), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N20). But the spike for CO2 on the left dwarfs all the other greenhouse gases, and tells us something very important: most of the energy being trapped in the atmosphere corresponds exactly to the wavelength of energy captured by CO2.