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Thursday 15 October 2009
1970's FILM DISCUSSES THE COMING ICE-AGE
Here is an interesting website containing footage of scientists dicussing their concerns of the coming ice-age. Strange how our fears can change so quickly. One of the scientists is now a leading US global warming alarmist - Stephen Schneider.
It is a truism that causes precede their effects. Take out your Gore DVD and pause on the 450,000-year record of earth’s temperature and the concentration of CO2 in earth’s atmosphere. Gore’s explicit conclusion is that variations in CO2 cause variations in temperature. It is indeed the case that the two variables wax and wane together. The correlation coefficient of temperature and CO2 in the graph, a statistical index of the degree of association between measured variables, is probably such that about 64% of the variation in one measure can be predicted from variation in the other. However, the statistical relation says nothing about the causal relation - - only that one measure is predictable from the other. Now, take a close look at the phase relations of temperature and CO2 - - that is, which change comes first, warming or increase in CO2? In the first half of the graph [earliest in time] warming almost invariably precedes elevation of CO2. This relationship is not so clear in the more recent records, where the relationships are mixed. What can be concluded? In this graph, on the whole, warming precedes CO2 more often than not. From this graph it cannot be concluded on any basis that changes in CO2 cause warming! More data than not, on the whole of research, points to elevation of temperature preceding elevation of CO2. How might warming increase CO2? One possibility is that ocean warming causes dissolved gases to evaporate.
It is a truism that causes precede their effects. Take out your Gore DVD and pause on the 450,000-year record of earth’s temperature and the concentration of CO2 in earth’s atmosphere. Gore’s explicit conclusion is that variations in CO2 cause variations in temperature. It is indeed the case that the two variables wax and wane together. The correlation coefficient of temperature and CO2 in the graph, a statistical index of the degree of association between measured variables, is probably such that about 64% of the variation in one measure can be predicted from variation in the other. However, the statistical relation says nothing about the causal relation - - only that one measure is predictable from the other. Now, take a close look at the phase relations of temperature and CO2 - - that is, which change comes first, warming or increase in CO2? In the first half of the graph [earliest in time] warming almost invariably precedes elevation of CO2. This relationship is not so clear in the more recent records, where the relationships are mixed. What can be concluded? In this graph, on the whole, warming precedes CO2 more often than not. From this graph it cannot be concluded on any basis that changes in CO2 cause warming! More data than not, on the whole of research, points to elevation of temperature preceding elevation of CO2. How might warming increase CO2? One possibility is that ocean warming causes dissolved gases to evaporate.
ReplyDeleteCharles S. Rebert
Coulterville, CA
drsoar@aol.com
What you say makes a lot of sense, Charles.
ReplyDelete