There has been a lot of media pronouncements saying that because this year has been particularly warm in many places that this proves there is a "climate emergency". Of course anyone who studies climate seriously knows that it takes at least 30 years of data to show any change in climate and that any one year, or even four or five, is simply "weather". Below is a good article to explain this in more detail.
On Skeptical Science, there is a temperature trend page. As you pointed out, the magic number for looking at data is 30 years. On another site I posted this to show that the 30 year trends in temperature are accelerating. The more we burn FFs, the more co2 in the atmosphere, the more we increase temperature on the surface of the earth where we live.
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/trend
1993 to 2023
Trend: 0.211 ±0.066 °C/decade (2σ)
1983 to 2013
Trend: 0.161 ±0.054 °C/decade (2σ)
1973 to 2003
Trend: 0.167 ±0.036 °C/decade (2σ)
1963 to 1993
Trend: 0.163 ±0.057 °C/decade (2σ)
1953 to 1983
Trend: 0.077 ±0.058 °C/decade (2σ)
1943 to 1973
Trend: -0.008 ±0.055 °C/decade (2σ)
1933 to 1963
Trend: 0.027 ±0.061 °C/decade (2σ)
1923 to 1953
Trend: 0.091 ±0.061 °C/decade (2σ)
1913 to 1943
Trend: 0.117 ±0.058 °C/decade (2σ)
1903 to 1933
Trend: 0.089 ±0.057 °C/decade (2σ)
On some of your trends the error bars are larger than the trend itself. For example 1933 to 1963 has a trend of -0.008 and an error of +/-0.061. I would not believe such stats were reliable.
ReplyDeleteIt shows we are warming clearly in todays world. With acceleration.
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