The following report is a very comprehensive and interesting read.
UK Food Strategy and Net Zero (thegwpf.org)
Here are one or two highlights:
In 2019, the total CO2 emissions from the UK (i.e. production, not consumption figures) amounted to 369 million tonnes. In 2020, emissions dropped to 329 million tonnes. These figures ignore land use. In 2020, this represented just 0.95% of global emissions, down from 2.64% in 1990 (world CO2 emissions totalled 36.7 billion tonnes in 2019). Consumption-based emissions for the UK in 2019 (the most recent year for which data is available) were 520 million tonnes, bringing the country’s contribution to 1.4% of global emissions. Achieving Net Zero for the UK would be effectively a rounding error in global emissions, which continue to increase. China, far and away the world’s largest CO2 emitter for over a decade, will not compromise its economic growth in the cause of climate change mitigation.
Look at what the UK has achieved in recent decades. Total emissions have fallen very significantly, now standing at about the same level as in late Victorian times. This is for a country of 67 million, compared to about 31 million in 1870.
To re-engineer the UK’s agricultural sector and food supply chain will inevitably have a massive impact on farmers, the countryside and diets, whether or not people conform to policymakers’ expectations and move to plant-based diets or whether they simply eat more imported meat and dairy produce. Decreeing the effective end of much livestock farming would be devastating. Doing this for the sake of 10% of the country’s overall emissions of greenhouse gases would be pure folly.
https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/sustainability/our-insights/spotting-green-business-opportunities-in-a-surging-net-zero-world/transition-to-net-zero/food-and-agriculture
ReplyDeleteWorld wide we would need to spend about 250 billion more each year.
The alternative-protein market gains momentum
The alternative-protein market will likely be an important contributor to reduced emissions, though changing what people eat may require extensive efforts, including consumer education. Some McKinsey experts predict that by 2030, alternative proteins will be ubiquitous and offered as an option at most fast-food and fine-dining restaurants.
Several factors including shifting consumer demand, regulation, and innovation may impact the scale and speed of adoption.
In the United States there is a market for alternative proteins taking place. One popular item is the impossible burger.
Consumer motivations
Habits, aspirations, and cultures with respect to meat eating continue to evolve. Two-thirds of people we studied listed health as the primary reason for shifting to plant-based diets. The knock-on positive impact on the environment (including reduced deforestation) may motivate others.
Some people will take to this like ducks to water and some will never get on board. Only time will tell.
Regulation
Alternative-protein companies are navigating uncharted waters. New regulatory frameworks are emerging alongside these new food products. Regional differences may create pockets of opportunity to test new products. Players in this space will need to keep a close eye on unit economics to better price novel food products and keep it attractive.
This is a tough area to live in as a company. It depends on consumer acceptance.
Innovation
Bio innovations may drive demand for alternative proteins and could impact the logistics and transportation sector. McKinsey’s Joshua Katz states that the potential to create “a steak that is indistinguishable from a traditional steak, or an alternative French cheese that is indistinguishable from the best Camembert in the world, will be an interesting moment when we get there.”
I believe we are about the same age. This works based on our younger generation accepting change.
$840 billion
average annual capital spending required to reach net zero by 2050
$570 billion
current annual public support (in repurposed subsidies) is provided to agricultural producers in the 51 countries that produce two-thirds of food globally
The money at the bottom of my post was supposed to be at the top.
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