This site is a reference point for those with a cool head for climate science, arguably the most political science ever. When the government and most of the media concentrate on alarmism, this site is the antidote for those who don't believe the scare stories - YOU ARE NOT ALONE! (blog started on 7/11/07) We have over 1.9 million hits and blog is updated regularly most weeks.
Wednesday, 25 March 2009
CATASTROPHE FROM THE SUN
This article from the New Scientist explains the possibility of a catastrophic effect due to an ejection event from the Sun. Of course it receives little publicity as there is no way we can be blamed for it and so it is of no political use.
There are many things which are alarming, but there is nothing we can do about them. Just relax and put them out of your mind. I am not an alarmist, but a realist.
You optimistically (by your own admission) assume that unknown and unproven technology will solve the coming liquid fuels deficit, upon which our lives depend.
You say natural processes should be understood, but don't recognise the classic population bloom we are participating in, which in all cases results in a crash.
Neither do you acknowledge how deforestation affects climate, water shortages are seriously threatening our survival, nitrate run off causes dead zones, heavy metals pollute our soils, agriculture depends on depleting resources, overfishing collapses fisheries, acid rain kills off aquatic life, and the consequences of all these.
It doesn't add up. Do you believe that there can be nothing alarming that can have something done about it? History is replete with disasters that could have been averted. While your own reckless lifestyle adds to the damage, you believe it is up to others to prove it does harm. You are not a realist, you are a bigot.
Please calm down! Of course some problems are real and can be solved. For example, genuine pollution can be (and often is) stopped. We can and should mange resources in a sustainable way.
You describe my lifestyle as "reckless", without knowing how I live. You need to be careful not to overdo the "disaster" cry, as if it is overdone then no one will believe you when you are right.
You are also getting off-topic - My main argument is over the CO2 theory, which I believe to be false. I thoroughly recommend the excellent Climate Skeptics Handbook by Joanne Nova. See my link on Right, under essential reading. That little book cuts to the core of the argument.
You're right, I don't know how you live besides driving car, using a computer frequently, depending on electricity and preferring incandescent lights. I assume that you have something to lose by way of imposed carbon costs. Am I wrong? If you were not so entrenched in modern life you would know you could adapt, thrive and benefit from others doing the same, leaving your descendants some valuable resources.
My point goes to credibility. Since you are so ambivalent about crises which are much less ambiguous, you are not trustworthy on such a complex and important issue as climate.
Sorry mate, but disasters do happen. There are big ones brewing and there is much we can do.
It's not pure speculation. There is plenty of evidence that our infrastructure is prone to systemic breakdown, and also that the production rate of oil and other fuel sources and materials will peak and decline irreversibly.
I could be wrong, I admit - at least on the timing. On the other hand, the cost to me of being wrong is far less than the cost to you of being wrong. In fact, I benefit from my actions in either scenario. My capsicums are super tasty!
To clarify: you are reckless by disregarding the possible and likely consequences of your lifestyle (systemic breakdown, future scarcity, pollution, ecological collapse) to yourself, others, and future generations. It's not because you are necessarily wasteful with money, live dangerously, or anything like that.
On the contrary, I am very careful. I do not pollute or disregard any consequences. I am not responsible for the actions of others. I consume what others produce and it is for them to comply with regulations and act responsibly.
To bodly state that I am "reckless" is ridiculous. By your reckoning nearly everyone in the developed and developing world is reckless, which is nonsense.
As I do not accept the CO2 warming theory I do not regard emitting CO2 as harmful.
Unless you use all natural cleaners, do not drive or fly, grow your own food or buy local organic, reuse prolifically and do not use the health system, and avoid other modern conveniences, this is patently false. In fact, it is false just using a computer powered by coal (emits mercury, radiation and particles that affect rain patterns) or nuclear power (tailings, end of cycle waste and leaks leach radiation into the environment).
"I consume what others produce and it is for them to comply with regulations and act responsibly."
This is called passing the buck. No, you really are responsible for the effects of your consumption. You can't hide behind the regulation which is designed to stop only the most obvious and convenient damage, or expect others to behave responsibly on your behalf when they have an interest in short term profits.
"By your reckoning nearly everyone in the developed and developing world is reckless, which is nonsense."
Yes, this is true. Just consider the reckless borrowing and consumption that has taken place over the last decade, causing the world wide financial crisis. Almost everyone was complicit. The consequences of it is far greater than any climate change legislation, and yet you fail to acknowledge it. Peak oil et al is almost unheard of and the majority still act under the delusion that endless growth is not only possible but normal! Reckless is almost an understatement.
By your definition you yourself must be a reckless polluter since you are also using a computer to reply to me regularly. Are you really saying that you would never use the health system?
A lot of "drop-outs" claim to lead a life free from modern society, but my experience is that while they are not making any contribution by way of taxes, they are very willing to take advantage of the benefits system and the medical system.
I pollute, but I don't disregard the consequences. Much of my computer use is aimed at informing others and improving my own skills and knowledge for sustainable life. The wealth of knowledge on the internet may not be permanently available and it's naive to expect an instant transition. I am preparing arrangements to grow the majority of my food, and earn the difference by assisting others to change their lifestyles. I'm constantly reducing my impact, but yes, I am by no means perfect.
I avoid using the health system as much as possible by exercising, eating healthy food, not smoking, and so on.
Let's be honest, we all rely on the trappings of modern society. We travel on modern roads, we rely on piped water, gas, electricity, medical care, education,emergency services, etc. OK we can live without foreign produce, but denying ourselves bananas and oranges is mere tokenism. It is like wearing a hair-shirt - a pointless gesture.
We can be sensible and live within our means, but still enjoy a good life with the great variety that is available today. We should do that and not feel any guilt about it. It is futile to worry about future generations when we have no idea what the world will be like.
There's an old saying. A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. Living sustainably is like that.
Perhaps refusing to buy bananas and oranges makes little difference, but as you make bigger and bigger steps, your consumption is significantly below average. You stop keeping a car. You have a local holiday instead of flying. You decide against buying that iPod. Your financial position is improving because you're not buying so many things you don't need. You are growing some of your own food and learning to store it. You have encouraged your friends, family and neighbours too. One day a crisis occurs and you find that because of your prudent work it is no catastrophe, while others around struggle, suffer and die [1]. Pretending nothing bad happens, that you can't prepare for it, or that it doesn't matter - doesn't make it so.
I live within my means and enjoy a good life. I can adapt if necessary; go without if circumstances require it, but giving up such things while those around us are enjoying them is pointless and only hurts those who do it. I will wait to see the crisis first and not waste my life preparing for it. You may find that the crisis never comes.
Perhaps you didn't notice, but we are going through a world wide financial and economic crisis. Millions around the world are losing their jobs monthly. My friend's parents have lost their retirement savings. This crisis is already here, very real, and building steam.
Do you think losing your job would be a catastrophe if you owned outright or rented a small house and grew a lot of your food? Compare it to a large house, fancy cars, no food growing capacity and skills, and a huge debt. That's not something you can rapidly fix, and the alternative certainly isn't pointless. Just ask the underwater home owners that over extended themselves the last several years.
Should I be alarmed, Derek? Are you an alarmist?
ReplyDeleteThere are many things which are alarming, but there is nothing we can do about them. Just relax and put them out of your mind. I am not an alarmist, but a realist.
ReplyDeleteOh? I thought you were an optimist. You're sending a lot of mixed messages, Derek.
ReplyDeleteNatural processes are very complex and chaotic. I am a realist. We should all try to understand the world, but not worry unduly about it.
ReplyDeleteYou optimistically (by your own admission) assume that unknown and unproven technology will solve the coming liquid fuels deficit, upon which our lives depend.
ReplyDeleteYou say natural processes should be understood, but don't recognise the classic population bloom we are participating in, which in all cases results in a crash.
Neither do you acknowledge how deforestation affects climate, water shortages are seriously threatening our survival, nitrate run off causes dead zones, heavy metals pollute our soils, agriculture depends on depleting resources, overfishing collapses fisheries, acid rain kills off aquatic life, and the consequences of all these.
It doesn't add up. Do you believe that there can be nothing alarming that can have something done about it? History is replete with disasters that could have been averted. While your own reckless lifestyle adds to the damage, you believe it is up to others to prove it does harm. You are not a realist, you are a bigot.
Please calm down! Of course some problems are real and can be solved. For example, genuine pollution can be (and often is) stopped. We can and should mange resources in a sustainable way.
ReplyDeleteYou describe my lifestyle as "reckless", without knowing how I live. You need to be careful not to overdo the "disaster" cry, as if it is overdone then no one will believe you when you are right.
You are also getting off-topic - My main argument is over the CO2 theory, which I believe to be false. I thoroughly recommend the excellent Climate Skeptics Handbook by Joanne Nova. See my link on Right, under essential reading. That little book cuts to the core of the argument.
You're right, I don't know how you live besides driving car, using a computer frequently, depending on electricity and preferring incandescent lights. I assume that you have something to lose by way of imposed carbon costs. Am I wrong? If you were not so entrenched in modern life you would know you could adapt, thrive and benefit from others doing the same, leaving your descendants some valuable resources.
ReplyDeleteMy point goes to credibility. Since you are so ambivalent about crises which are much less ambiguous, you are not trustworthy on such a complex and important issue as climate.
Sorry mate, but disasters do happen. There are big ones brewing and there is much we can do.
It occurred to me that I don't need to assume anything about your lifestyle to know that it is
ReplyDeletereckless
1.
a) Heedless or careless.
b) Headstrong; rash
2. Indifferent to or disregardful of consequences: a reckless driver.
It perfectly describes your attitude.
That is pure speculation - just like the theory that CO2 emissions are the cause of global warming. And you couldn't be more wrong on both counts.
ReplyDeleteIt's not pure speculation. There is plenty of evidence that our infrastructure is prone to systemic breakdown, and also that the production rate of oil and other fuel sources and materials will peak and decline irreversibly.
ReplyDeleteI could be wrong, I admit - at least on the timing. On the other hand, the cost to me of being wrong is far less than the cost to you of being wrong. In fact, I benefit from my actions in either scenario. My capsicums are super tasty!
To clarify: you are reckless by disregarding the possible and likely consequences of your lifestyle (systemic breakdown, future scarcity, pollution, ecological collapse) to yourself, others, and future generations. It's not because you are necessarily wasteful with money, live dangerously, or anything like that.
ReplyDeleteOn the contrary, I am very careful. I do not pollute or disregard any consequences. I am not responsible for the actions of others. I consume what others produce and it is for them to comply with regulations and act responsibly.
ReplyDeleteTo bodly state that I am "reckless" is ridiculous. By your reckoning nearly everyone in the developed and developing world is reckless, which is nonsense.
As I do not accept the CO2 warming theory I do not regard emitting CO2 as harmful.
"I do not pollute or disregard any consequences."
ReplyDeleteUnless you use all natural cleaners, do not drive or fly, grow your own food or buy local organic, reuse prolifically and do not use the health system, and avoid other modern conveniences, this is patently false. In fact, it is false just using a computer powered by coal (emits mercury, radiation and particles that affect rain patterns) or nuclear power (tailings, end of cycle waste and leaks leach radiation into the environment).
"I consume what others produce and it is for them to comply with regulations and act responsibly."
This is called passing the buck. No, you really are responsible for the effects of your consumption. You can't hide behind the regulation which is designed to stop only the most obvious and convenient damage, or expect others to behave responsibly on your behalf when they have an interest in short term profits.
"By your reckoning nearly everyone in the developed and developing world is reckless, which is nonsense."
Yes, this is true. Just consider the reckless borrowing and consumption that has taken place over the last decade, causing the world wide financial crisis. Almost everyone was complicit. The consequences of it is far greater than any climate change legislation, and yet you fail to acknowledge it. Peak oil et al is almost unheard of and the majority still act under the delusion that endless growth is not only possible but normal! Reckless is almost an understatement.
By your definition you yourself must be a reckless polluter since you are also using a computer to reply to me regularly. Are you really saying that you would never use the health system?
ReplyDeleteA lot of "drop-outs" claim to lead a life free from modern society, but my experience is that while they are not making any contribution by way of taxes, they are very willing to take advantage of the benefits system and the medical system.
I pollute, but I don't disregard the consequences. Much of my computer use is aimed at informing others and improving my own skills and knowledge for sustainable life. The wealth of knowledge on the internet may not be permanently available and it's naive to expect an instant transition. I am preparing arrangements to grow the majority of my food, and earn the difference by assisting others to change their lifestyles. I'm constantly reducing my impact, but yes, I am by no means perfect.
ReplyDeleteI avoid using the health system as much as possible by exercising, eating healthy food, not smoking, and so on.
Let's be honest, we all rely on the trappings of modern society. We travel on modern roads, we rely on piped water, gas, electricity, medical care, education,emergency services, etc. OK we can live without foreign produce, but denying ourselves bananas and oranges is mere tokenism. It is like wearing a hair-shirt - a pointless gesture.
ReplyDeleteWe can be sensible and live within our means, but still enjoy a good life with the great variety that is available today. We should do that and not feel any guilt about it. It is futile to worry about future generations when we have no idea what the world will be like.
There's an old saying. A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. Living sustainably is like that.
ReplyDeletePerhaps refusing to buy bananas and oranges makes little difference, but as you make bigger and bigger steps, your consumption is significantly below average. You stop keeping a car. You have a local holiday instead of flying. You decide against buying that iPod. Your financial position is improving because you're not buying so many things you don't need. You are growing some of your own food and learning to store it. You have encouraged your friends, family and neighbours too. One day a crisis occurs and you find that because of your prudent work it is no catastrophe, while others around struggle, suffer and die [1]. Pretending nothing bad happens, that you can't prepare for it, or that it doesn't matter - doesn't make it so.
[1] http://sharonastyk.com/2008/12/13/inconceivable-why-failure-is-normal-and-should-be-part-of-the-planbut-isnt/
I live within my means and enjoy a good life. I can adapt if necessary; go without if circumstances require it, but giving up such things while those around us are enjoying them is pointless and only hurts those who do it. I will wait to see the crisis first and not waste my life preparing for it. You may find that the crisis never comes.
ReplyDeletePerhaps you didn't notice, but we are going through a world wide financial and economic crisis. Millions around the world are losing their jobs monthly. My friend's parents have lost their retirement savings. This crisis is already here, very real, and building steam.
ReplyDeleteDo you think losing your job would be a catastrophe if you owned outright or rented a small house and grew a lot of your food? Compare it to a large house, fancy cars, no food growing capacity and skills, and a huge debt. That's not something you can rapidly fix, and the alternative certainly isn't pointless. Just ask the underwater home owners that over extended themselves the last several years.