In Wednesday's Daily Mail there was this article on the front page. Many people will only see the headline, but it will be enough to convince them that exhaust fumes are giving them dementia, even though the evidence presented in the article is very weak. Even the Head of Research at the Alzheimer's Society pointed out "that the research had only looked at the chance of developing dementia and had not actually proved that the pollution had caused the illness".
Not only that, but to separate out one factor, such as exhaust gases, as a cause of a specific illness is impossible using statistical information because there are so many other factors which it is not even possible to know about which could also affect the outcome.
The article does not give the full details of the research, but they are available here. They extracted (from the GP record) information on ethnicity, smoking, body mass index (BMI) and alcohol consumption, but the patients had only been registered with their GP for one year. They had no idea where they had lived for the previous years of their life. no idea of their previous occupation, whether their partners were heavy smokers, to name but a few other relevant factors.
The paper does not even attempt to look at the very obvious limitations of the research. They have one agenda - to make out a clear case that these gases are dangerous. The fact that the emissions are at record low levels (and falling) due to modern vehicle design is not mentioned. If these gases were responsible for dementia then levels should be much higher in the past and we should expect them to be falling as the levels have dropped over the recent decades.
I expect to see more and more of this sort of article to get the public on board with raising the cost of running a car with an ICE. Will it work? We will have to wait and see. Much will depend on the experience of those who move to electric vehicle first and the way it is reported.
Not only that, but to separate out one factor, such as exhaust gases, as a cause of a specific illness is impossible using statistical information because there are so many other factors which it is not even possible to know about which could also affect the outcome.
The article does not give the full details of the research, but they are available here. They extracted (from the GP record) information on ethnicity, smoking, body mass index (BMI) and alcohol consumption, but the patients had only been registered with their GP for one year. They had no idea where they had lived for the previous years of their life. no idea of their previous occupation, whether their partners were heavy smokers, to name but a few other relevant factors.
The paper does not even attempt to look at the very obvious limitations of the research. They have one agenda - to make out a clear case that these gases are dangerous. The fact that the emissions are at record low levels (and falling) due to modern vehicle design is not mentioned. If these gases were responsible for dementia then levels should be much higher in the past and we should expect them to be falling as the levels have dropped over the recent decades.
I expect to see more and more of this sort of article to get the public on board with raising the cost of running a car with an ICE. Will it work? We will have to wait and see. Much will depend on the experience of those who move to electric vehicle first and the way it is reported.
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