Here is a thoughtful presentation from Judith Curry
Climate Uncertainty & Risk: the presentation | Watts Up With That?
"The climate “crisis” isn’t what it used to be. Circa 2013 with publication of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, the extreme emissions scenario RCP8.5 was regarded as the business-as-usual emissions scenario, with expected warming of 4 to 5 oC by 2100. Now there is growing acceptance that RCP8.5 is implausible, and RCP4.5 is arguably the current business-as-usual emissions scenario according to recent reports issued by the COP 26 and 27. Only a few years ago, an emissions trajectory that followed RCP4.5 with 2 to 3 oC warming was regarded as climate policy success. As limiting warming to 2 oC seems to be in reach, the goal posts were moved in 2018 to reduce the warming target to 1.5 oC.
Climate catastrophe rhetoric now seems linked to extreme weather events. For nearly all of these events, it is difficult to identify any role for human-caused climate change in increasing either their intensity or frequency."
I find carbon brief very informative on conveying the science of global warming. Reaching 2*C increase this century is very possible as moderate effort to reduce GHGs. I have always made to case of the faster we go at reducintg GHGs, the better off we are as humans, and the better off life is on the planet. We can make ourselves miserable in the future or we can have less pain from our energy life choices on the planet.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-when-might-the-world-exceed-1-5c-and-2c-of-global-warming/
Our analysis shows that:
The world will likely exceed 1.5C between 2026 and 2042 in scenarios where emissions are not rapidly reduced, with a central estimate of between 2030 and 2032.
The 2C threshold will likely be exceeded between 2034 and 2052 in the highest emissions scenario, with a median year of 2043.
In a scenario of modest mitigation – where emissions remain close to current levels – the 2C threshold would be exceeded between 2038 and 2072, with a median of 2052.
The presence of carbon as currently huge ,there is need to help our environment system for upcoming years. Otherwise, according to your data in future situation will not be in our hand .
ReplyDeleteFor more visit us on Energy Environmental Solutions http://sourcetester.org/