This story about 1.5°C threshold has no basis in science and is just a political invention designed to hasten the implementation of Net Zero. Suggestions that the planet will encounter ‘tipping points’ are pseudoscientific fear-mongering produced by climate models fed with improbable climate data. Read it all here:
‘1.5°C Temperature Disaster’ Story Makes its Annual Media Appearance – The Daily Sceptic
The ocean absorbs about 90% of the warming from our carbon pollution. This is the year El Nino is kicking in and so far it looks to be a strong one.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.scientificamerican.com/article/global-warming-is-likely-to-breach-the-1-5-degrees-c-milestone-within-5-years/
Global Warming Is Likely to Breach the 1.5-Degree-C Milestone within 5 Years
One of the next five years will almost certainly be the hottest on record, and there’s a two-in-three chance one year will cross the crucial global warming threshold of 1.5 degrees C
This isn't some conspiracy that is based in falsehoods. This is science putting it out there saying what they have come up with. I am reading in other articles that ocean surface temperatures are now setting records around the globe. Its very clear to me, the energy in the ocean has increased from global warming and that makes for more extreme storms.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.scientificamerican.com/article/global-warming-is-likely-to-breach-the-1-5-degrees-c-milestone-within-5-years/
The World Meteorological Organization update says there is a 98% chance at least one of the next five years will be the hottest on record. And there’s a 66% chance of at least one year over the 1.5℃ threshold.
There’s also a 32% chance the average temperature over the next five years will exceed the 1.5℃ threshold. The chance of temporarily exceeding 1.5℃ has risen steadily since 2015, when it was close to zero. For the years between 2017 and 2021, it was a 10% chance.
Human-caused greenhouse gas emissions have already driven up global average temperatures by more than 1℃ since the late 19th century. The update notes the 2022 average global temperature was about 1.15℃ above the 1850-1900 average, despite the cooling influence of La Niña conditions. Temperatures are now rising by about 0.2℃ per decade.
El Nino is a natural phenomenon. How can CO2 which is in the atmosphere cause the heat to go into the ocean? Surely we should see the temperature of the atmosphere rise in a steady way, as the global warming theory predicts?
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DeleteI'm surprised you don't understand the mechanism of AGW. Adding co2 to the atmosphere, there is more reaction with infrared wavelengths returning a larger portion of the energy back to earth's surface. During la nina, the ocean actually is a more efficient absorber of the energy. El Nino is a cycle that expells some of that stored energy back into the atmosphere. We are in for a warmer year than during the la nina years.
"Human-caused greenhouse gas emissions have already driven up global average temperatures by more than 1℃ since the late 19th century." - So you attribute the entire increase to humans and none at all to natural causes. There is no scientific evidence for such a claim. Most scientists will accept that nature has played some part and around half is likely to be from other causes. What do you attribute the previous warm periods to?
ReplyDelete[[[[So you attribute the entire increase to humans and none at all to natural causes. There is no scientific evidence for such a claim]]]]
DeleteActually I do. And I have evidence for that. The sun is flat or slightly cooling, with long term ENSO canceling out with La ninas and El ninos. The 90% going into the oceans is because of human warming. There are several studies giving their results summed up for us in the colorful graphs.
https://skepticalscience.com/a-comprehensive-review-of-the-causes-of-global-warming.html
There was a period of warming between 1910 and 1940 which was predominantly caused by increasing solar activity and an extended period of low volcanic activity, with some contribution by human effects. However, since mid-century, solar activity has been flat, there has been moderate volcanic activity, and ENSO has had little net impact on global temperatures. All the while GHGs kept increasing, and became the dominant effect on global temperature changes, as Figures 3 and 4 illustrate.
A wide variety of statistical and physical approaches all arrived at the same conclusion: that humans are the dominant cause of the global warming over the past century, and particularly over the past 50 years. This robust scientitic evidence is why there is a consensus amongst scientific experts that humans are the dominant cause of global warming.