Here is a very welcome statistic which confounds the doom-mongers who keep predicting the demise of the planet due to "climate breakdown". How long before the people wake up to the failed predictions. Read the good news here:
Record World Cereal Outputs Forecast for 2023/24 | NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT (wordpress.com)
I hope the forecast comes true. Although the weakness of the argument that this one short term forecast suggests nothing to worry about, long term forecasts show that areas of the different countries will shift agriculturally. Areas that were once able to grow certain crops will have to grow different ones. If we are smart, then we plan for what could take place and act accordingly. If denial is too strong, people will suffer for it for lack of change to earth's growing conditions.
ReplyDeletehttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_agriculture#Global_aggregate_estimates_for_crop_yields
Climate change induced by increasing greenhouse gases is likely to differ across crops and countries.[103] In 2019 a decline in global crop production of 2% - 6% by decade was predicted.[3] A 2021 study estimates that the severity of heatwave and drought impacts on crop production tripled over the last 50 years in Europe – from losses of 2.2% during 1964–1990 to losses of 7.3% in 1991–2015.[6][7]
As of 2019, negative impacts have been observed for some crops in low-latitudes (maize and wheat), while positive impacts of climate change have been observed in some crops in high-latitudes (maize, wheat, and sugar beets).[104]: 8 Using different methods to project future crop yields, a consistent picture emerges of global decreases in yield. Maize and soybean decrease with any warming, whereas rice and wheat production might peak at 3 °C of warming.[4]: 453
A study in 2019 tracked ~20,000 political units globally for 10 crops (maize, rice, wheat, soybean, barley, cassava, oil palm, rapeseed, sorghum and sugarcane), providing more detail on the spatial resolution and a larger number of crops than previously studied.[78] It found that crop yields across Europe, Sub-Saharan Africa and Australia had in general decreased because of climate change (compared to the baseline value of 2004–2008 average data), though exceptions are present. The impact of global climate change on yields of different crops from climate trends ranged from -13.4% (oil palm) to 3.5% (soybean). The study also showed that impacts are generally positive in Latin America. Impacts in Asia and Northern and Central America are mixed.[78]