Here are some predictions made in the article below:
Global warming completely stopped in 2018. Temperatures will likely remain steady until 2025 and may decline slightly by 2030.
A strong El Niño in 2023 is unlikely. These are courageous claims and I am neither agreeing with them or dismissing them. Time will tell!
Why A Strong El Niño In 2023 Is Unlikely - Climate Change Dispatch
So far as we have found in science, the earth has never warmed as fast as during the human industrial age. The past extinctions on planet earth were way slower than today. This gives scientists of today very high confidence that we are at the beginning of a man made extinction event.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.ipcc.ch › 2021 › 08 › 09 › ar6-wg1-20210809-pr
Climate change widespread, rapid, and intensifying - IPCC
Aug 9, 2021The report shows that emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities are responsible for approximately 1.1°C of warming since 1850-1900, and finds that averaged over the next 20 years, global temperature is expected to reach or exceed 1.5°C of warming.
Actually the world's climate is constantly changing and no one can say with any certainty that the present warming is any faster than previous ones. Data from past events does not exist. The ice cores do not give any data on the short timescale that we are measuring today. However we do know that the climate has been warmer than the present many times and CO2 levels have been much higher than today.
ReplyDeleteThere are levels of certainty in this. You did't do your homework.
ReplyDelete[[[[[[[no one can say with any certainty that the present warming is any faster than previous ones.]]]]]]]
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/todays-climate-change-proves-much-faster-than-changes-in-past-65-million-years/
ENVIRONMENT
Today's Climate Change Proves Much Faster Than Changes in Past 65 Million Years
Climate change is occurring 10 to 100 times faster than in the past and ecosystems will find it hard to adjust
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proxy_(climate)
[[[[[Data from past events does not exist.]]]]]]
(Top)
Proxies
Toggle Proxies subsection
Ice cores
Drilling
Proxy
Tree rings
Fossil leaves
Boreholes
Corals
Pollen grains
Dinoflagellate cysts
Lake and ocean sediments
Water isotopes and temperature reconstruction
Membrane lipids
Pseudoproxies
[[[[[[[However we do know that the climate has been warmer than the present many times and CO2 levels have been much higher than today.]]]]]]
This was an extinction event caused by global warming on a much much slower change than our human caused event we are in now.
Global warming
A stacked record of temperatures and ice volume in the deep ocean through the Mesozoic and Cenozoic periods.
LPTM— Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum
OAEs— oceanic anoxic events
MME— mid-Maastrichtian event
A study in 2020 estimated the Global mean surface temperature (GMST) with 66% confidence during the latest Paleocene (c. 57 Ma) as 22.3 to 28.3 °C, PETM (56 Ma) as 27.2 to 34.5 °C, and Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO) (53.3 to 49.1 Ma) as 23.2 to 29.7 °C.[15] Estimates of the amount of average global temperature rise at the start of the PETM range from approximately 3 to 6 °C[16] to between 5 to 8 °C.[2] This warming was superimposed on "long-term" early Paleogene warming, and is based on several lines of evidence. There is a prominent (>1‰) negative excursion in the δ18O of foraminifera shells, both those made in surface and deep ocean water. Because there was little or no polar ice in the early Paleogene, the shift in δ18O very probably signifies a rise in ocean temperature.[17] The temperature rise is also supported by the spread of warmth-loving taxa to higher latitudes,[18] changes in plant leaf shape and size,[19] the Mg/Ca ratios of foraminifera,[16] and the ratios of certain organic compounds, such as TEXH86.[20]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleocene%E2%80%93Eocene_Thermal_Maximum#Global_warming
Nothing in what you have said above counters my point that we do not have accurate records of past temperature changes of the earth's atmosphere at the very short time scale that we are looking at today, which is a change over decades. Look at your own statement:
ReplyDelete"Climate change is occurring 10 to 100 times faster than in the past" That is so vague as to be meaningless.
James Hansen is one of the premier climate scientists in the world. Ignoring him just isn't a wise thing to do.
Deletehttps://insideclimatenews.org/news/26052023/james-hansen-climate-change-2-degrees-2050/
In the discussion draft of the new paper, the authors predict the rate of warming will double from the observed 0.18 degrees Celsius per decade from 1970 to 2010, to at least 0.27 degrees Celsius per decade since 2010.
Yes it is known how fast the PETM event took place in co2 change in the atmosphere. We are way faster than the natural event that took place 65 million years ago.
ReplyDeletehttps://skepticalscience.com/onset_of_PETM_took_3-4_millennia.html
So what does “relatively rapid onset” mean?
The answer to that question has been an intractable problem for many years, but two new studies have independently just zeroed-in on the answer: 3 to 4 millennia.
More accurately, the two studies have constrained how long it took to release the initial carbon that drove global warming in the PETM – a crucial piece of information if we want to compare the PETM to today’s warming. The first study was presented in December at the AGU conference in San Francisco by Richard Zeebe and co-workers, who have calculated a duration of about 4,000 years or more. The second is a paper by Sandy Kirtland Turner and Andy Ridgwell in Earth and Planetary Science Letters, which was published online the same week, and which calculated that the carbon release took about 3,000 years or less.
Despite the difference, the fact that 2 independent studies, using different data and approaches, arrived at a very similar timescale is a huge advance on previous estimates that could do no better than say the onset of the PETM took somewhere between 5,000 and 20,000 years.
I had the opportunity to chat with both Richard Zeebe and Andy Ridgwell about the PETM at the AGU meeting in December.