A total of four storms were named in 2022 but three of them came in the space of a week.
Storms Dudley, Eunice and Franklin impacted the UK in February 2022, with Storm Eunice resulting in red warnings for wind and saw a new highest maximum gust speed record for England set of 122mph at the Needles on the Isle of Wight.
Dr Mark McCarthy said: “There’s no evidence of a trend in storminess because of climate change, but this spell of impactful weather in February is certainly noteworthy. It was the first time three named storms had impacted the UK in a week, with Eunice being particularly impactful for much of southern England and Wales.”
“It’s also noteworthy that there haven’t been any named storms to impact the UK since that week in February.”
Water vapor is also called latent energy. As more and more water vapor enters the atmosphere from higher temperatures, there is more and more energy released into the atmosphere as it turns to rain. Water vapor increases in general through the atmosphere 7% for every 1*C increase in earth's average temperature. So in the last 150 years, our atmospheric water vapor has increased 7%.ReplyDelete
“Within the scientific community it’s a relatively well-accepted fact that as global temperatures increase, extreme precipitation will very likely increase as well. Beyond that, we’re still learning.”
- Joao Teixeira
A simple analogy describes how difficult it is to attribute extreme weather to climate change. Adding fossil fuel emissions to Earth’s atmosphere increases its temperature, which adds more energy to the atmosphere, supercharging it like an athlete on steroids. And just as it’s difficult to quantify how much of that athlete’s performance improvement is due to steroid use, so too it’s difficult to say whether extreme weather events are definitively due to a warmer atmosphere.
Storms clearly change in charachter with a warming earth.ReplyDelete
Severe thunderstorms are defined as having sustained winds above 93 kilometers (58 miles) per hour or unusually large hail, and there are two key factors that fuel their formation: convective available potential energy (CAPE) and strong wind shear. CAPE is a measure of how much raw energy is available for storms; it relates to how warm, moist, and buoyant air is in a given area. Wind shear is a measure of how the speed and direction of winds change with altitude.
The maps above show the results of a model comparing the summer climate in 2072–2099 with the climate from 1962–1989. CAPE (top map) is predicted to rise enough to overwhelm a slight decrease in vertical wind shear (middle map), leading to an increase in severe thunderstorms (third map), especially in Missouri and coastal North and South Carolina. The modeling suggests that the increase in CAPE will be the strongest in the Southeast and the decrease in wind shear strongest in the Mountain West. The eastern United States will see more of an increase in days favorable to severe thunderstorm formation than the western part of the country.
More atmospheric water vapor, more intense storms.ReplyDelete
The most recent storms pummeling northern California, called atmospheric rivers, are essentially rivers in the sky that collect moisture from tropical areas and redistribute the water to other latitudes. Atmospheric rivers can be up to 350 miles wide and up to 1,600 miles long and have been known to carry up to 15-times the amount of water of the Mississippi River.
As climate change warms the earth's atmosphere, water from oceans, lakes, and streams evaporate. This increased moisture in the air then feeds atmospheric rivers to grow longer, wetter, and more intense in a warming planet, according to scientists.
"Given the changes that have already happened in the climate, we will see an increase in intensity in atmospheric rivers over the coming decades," Tom Corringham, a research economist at the University of California San Diego's Scripps Institute of Oceanography, told ABC News.
Corringham has studied the impact of climate change on atmospheric rivers and predicts the areas affected by these streams of moisture will shift north.
"We expect to see increased damages because of atmospheric rivers and climate change and some of those areas include the Sierra Nevada Mountains, Northern California, and Southern Oregon," he said.
Despite all the points you raise (and most of them refer to the predictions of computer models) the UK Met Office has stated that "there is no evidence of a change in storminess due to climate change". Everyone knows the Met Office are completely on board with global warming causing a climate emergency, so for them to say there is NO evidence of any change is very significant.ReplyDelete
He may be talking about GB storms only. NASA on the other hand for different areas of the UNited States has various changes related to climate change.Delete
Last week, the Met Office said it was expecting 2023 to be warmer than this year, and one of the hottest on record.
Predictions suggest it will be the 10th year in a row where the global temperature is at least 1C above average.
Scientific evidence shows that climate change is driving up the global temperature, and governments around the world have promised to cut emissions to keep temperature rises below 1.5C.