STERN REVIEW A CHECK ON ITS ACCURACY 20 YEARS ON

The Stern Review dramatically over-predicted economic losses from extreme weather events, and that flawed prediction was based on the misreading of a white paper. Since 1990 there has been no upward trend at all in total losses from weather extremes as a proportion of GDP.

Over 2006 to 2025, the Stern Review’s projection implied $7.0 trillion in weather losses based on Munich Re’s data, in 2026 dollars. Actual losses were $4.3 trillion, $2.8 trillion less. Using Aon’s data, the shortfall is $1.5 trillion.

 The Stern Review’s $2.8 Trillion Miss - by Roger Pielke Jr.