The following report is from the Canada Free Press, 6 August 2014 (
http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/65111) I do not necessarily endorse its contents, but I put it on the blog merely to show that these predictions are being put forward by serious people. Those who make precise predictions lay themselves open to being proved wrong - very quickly in the case of those beginning in 2014 or 2015. We will not have long to wait!
Jack
Dini reports that we may be witnessing the sun's last dying gasps before entering into
a long slumber. The impact of that slumber on Earth's climate remains the
subject of growing scientific speculation.
In 2008 William Livingston and
Matthew Penn of the National Solar Observatory in Tucson, in a controversial
paper that contradicted conventional wisdom and upset global warming theorists,
predicted that sunspots could more or less disappear after 2015, possibly
indicating the onset of another Little Ice Age. They stated, "The occurrence of
prolonged periods with no sunspots is important to climate studies, since the
Maunder Minimum was shown to correspond with the reduced average global
temperatures on the Earth." The Maunder Minimum lasted for approximately 70
years from about 1645 to 1715, and was marked by bitter cold, widespread crop
failures, and severe human privation.
There has been increasing
evidence in recent years to support this supposition that global warming is
linked with solar activity.
In 2011, three papers suggested the Earth
could be heading for a 'little ice age' as solar activity drops once again.
Other research also confirmed that solar effects could bring on
little ice ages. Sarah Ineson and her colleagues report that changes in the
Sun's emissions of ultraviolet radiation coincided with observed cold winters
over southern Europe and Canada between 2008 and 2011.
And Katja
Matthes and colleagues report that simulations with a climate model using new
observations of solar vulnerability suggests a substantial influence of the Sun
on the winter climate in the Northern Hemisphere.
A 2014 paper by
Chinese scientists reported the impact of carbon dioxide on climate change may
have been overstated with solar activity giving a better explanation of changes
in the Earth's temperature. The paper found 'a high correlation between solar
activity and the Earth's averaged surface temperature over centuries,'
suggesting that climate change is intimately linked with solar cycles rather
than human activity. Indeed, the study says that the 'modern maximum' - a peak
in solar activity that lasted much of the last century corresponds very well
with an increase in global temperatures.
Russian scientists foresee
an even more dramatic situation. They predict that a little ice age will begin
in 2014.
In their book, The Neglected Sun, authors Fritz Vahrenholt
and Sebastian Luning pose that temperatures could be two-tenths of a degree
lower by 2030 as a result of an anemic sun, which would mean warming getting
postponed far into the future.
Note that these reports are from
researchers around the world.
Nick Hallet observes, "The research shows
that the current warming models of the IPCC seem to underestimate the impact of
natural factors on climate change, while overstating that of human activities.
Solar activity is an important ingredient of natural driving forces of climate.
Therefore, it is valuable to investigate the influence of solar variability on
the Earth's climate change on long time scales."
Add to all this a
very recent paper that says the modern Grand maximum of the sun (which occurred
during solar cycles 19-23, i. e., 1950-2009) was a 'rare or even unique event in
both magnitude and duration in the past 3,000 years.' Unfortunately, it was
beyond the scope of this paper to address the potential impact of solar activity
on climate. Yet the reconstruction leaves a very big question unanswered-What
effect did the Grand maximum have on Earth's climate? As a 'unique' and 'rare'
event in terms of both magnitude and duration, one would think a lot more time
and effort would be spent by IPCC and others in answering that question.
Instead, as noted earlier, IPCC scientists have conducted relatively few studies
of the Sun's influence on modern warming, assuming that the temperature
influence of this rare and unique Grand maximum of solar activity, which has
occurred only once in the past 3,000 years, is far inferior to the radiative
power provided by the rising CO2
concentration of the Earth's atmosphere.